State-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) is likely to see its natural gas output rising to an all-time high of 66 million cubic meters per day in 2012-13 as it brings newer fields into productions to offset decline in old ones.
It is targeting around 60 mmcmd output this fiscal, same as in the past three years, but from next fiscal the production was supposed to dip sharply as natural decline was to set in more than two decade old fields, according to a company presentation to the petroleum ministry last week.
The production was projected to fall to less than 20 mmcmd by 2020 but with three new fields the trend will reverse with output rising to 66 mmcmd by 2012-13 and then gradually falling to around 30 mmcmd by 2020.
The upside would come from the discoveries in the western offshore (WO), Cluster-7 and Vashista and S1 fields in eastern offshore, the presentation stated.
When contacted, ONGC Chairman and Managing Director R S Sharma confirmed the projections, saying the WO Cluster fields would being production at a little less than 2 mmcmd in 2012-13, while Cluster-7 would produce 2 mmcmd. The biggest upside would come from Vasishtha and S1 fields that are projected to produce just under 6 mmcmd from 2013-14.
"If we add the discoveries for which plans are conceptualised, the output will rise to 70 mmcmd in 2012-13," he said.
Sharma said the discoveries to be conceptualised include the 167 billion cubic meters of reserves in KG-DWN-98/2 block, lying adjacent to Reliance Industries' prolific KG-D6 fields in Krishna Godavari basin off the east coast.
Besides, an estimated 200 bcm reserves lie to be realised in Mahanadi deep-water discoveries, 25 cbm in KG shallow waters and 15 bcm in B and C-Series fields.
These discoveries could yield between 40 and 50 mmcmd, he said.
Gas production from Bassein and its Satellite fields, ONGC's largest fields, is to dip to about 13.8 mmcmd in 2011-12 from 27.5 mmcmd in 2007-08.
As a result of natural phenomenon, reservoir pressure at the gas field has declined with continuous production for over 20 years. Bassein field was discovered in 1977, some 80-km west of Mumbai and when in 1988 it began gas production, recoverable reserves were estimated at 226 billion cubic meters (7.98 trillion cubic feet). The reserves are now estimated at about 58 billion cubic meters (2.04 Tcf).
Bassein field accounts for 43 per cent of ONGC's gas production.
Gas output from the field during 2008-09 is estimated at 27.3 mmcmd which will fall to 22.75 mmcmd in 2009-10 and to 17.7 mmcmd in 2010-11.
Gas production from Mumbai High will decline from 14.59 mmcmd in 2007-08 to 8.7 mmcmd in 2011-12, while the same from Neelam, Heera and B-173 fields would dip from 2.7 mmcmd to 2.06 mmcmd.
Sharma said ONGC hopes to make up some of the decline by putting into operation new and marginal fields that are to begin producing one mmcmd gas in current year, rising up to 13 mmcmd in 2011-12.
ONGC's total gas production from offshore fields in 2007-08 was 45 mmcmd which is estimated to decline to 39.1 mmcmd in 2011-12.
Gas production from onland fields will, however, see an increase to 21 mmcmd in 2011-12 from 16 mmcmd, officials said.
The company produced 61.18 mmcmd gas in 2007-08. This was to marginally fall to 60.2 mmcmd in 2011-12.
