The Indian personal computer (PC -- includes desktop and notebooks) market is expected to see a decline of 3.7 per cent for 2009 -- one of the sharpest declines in the past 5-6 years. Similarly, the global PC industry too is predicted to experience its sharpest unit decline in history, with PC shipments totaling 257 million units in 2009 -- an 11.9 per cent decline from 2008, according to research firm Gartner.
“This will be one of the worst years for the Indian PC market. In the fourth quarter of 2008 alone the Indian PC market saw a decline of 9 per cent. In the worst case scenario we see a decline of 3.7 per cent for 2009,” added Diptarup Chakraborti, Principal Research Analyst, Gartner.
Both emerging and mature markets are forecast to suffer unprecedented market slowdowns. Up to this point, emerging markets collectively recorded their lowest growth in 2002, 11.1 per cent. Mature markets recorded their lowest growth in 2001, negative 7.9 per cent. Both emerging and mature markets will handily surpass these previous lows in 2009, with emerging markets expected to post a decline of 10.4 per cent and mature markets a decline of 13 per cent.
Globally PC units experienced their worst decline in 2001 when unit shipments contracted 3.2 per cent. “Growth in both emerging and mature markets will be driven by similar dynamics even if the precise impacts vary somewhat. Slower GDP growth will generally weaken demand and slow new penetration, lengthening PC lifetimes will reduce replacements, and supplier caution will keep inventories at historic lows until confidence in a recovery eventually firms. The impact of reduced replacements will be especially acute in mature markets, where replacements are estimated to account for around 80 per cent of shipments,” said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner.
Worldwide mobile PC shipments are expected to reach 155.6 million units, a 9 per cent increase from 2008. Desk-based PC shipments are forecast to total 101.4 million units, a 31.9 per cent decline from 2008. Mobile PC growth will be substantially boosted by continued growth in mini-notebook shipments; excluding mini-notebooks, other mobile PC shipments will grow just 2.7 per cent in 2009.
Chakraborti, while agreed that a turn around in third quarter of 2009 is possible but the first and second quarters will be negative.
Worldwide mini-notebook shipments are forecast to total 21 million units in 2009, up from 2008 shipments of 11.7 million units. Mini-notebooks will cushion the overall PC market slowdown, but they remain too few to prevent the market’s steep decline. Mini-notebooks are forecast to represent just 8 per cent of PC shipments in 2009.
