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The just-released Pitch-Madison report on advertising expenditure for 2014 reiterates what two other Adex reports have indicated in the last one month - ad growth is set to rise this year on the back of the general and state elections. Unlike GroupM and ZenithOptimedia. who've been cautious in their optimism, saying ad growth will be 11.6% and 11.5% respectively for the year, Pitch-Madison has been more buoyant in its estimates, saying overall ad growth will be 16.8% for 2014.
Drivers of this growth will be TV, print and outdoor, which will each grow 15%, 17% and 8.2 % respectively, according to Pitch-Madison. Last year, spends on TV grew 8.2%, print, 10%, and outdoor, 6.2%. Radio, in contrast, will grow 15% this year, Pitch-Madison says. But this is still lower than the 18% growth the medium saw last year, the report says.
At an overall level, the jump in ad growth last year over this year is 5.7%, according to Pitch-Madison. This year, the overall ad industry is estimated to touch Rs 37, 216 crore from Rs 31,877 crore last year.
When compared with GroupM's forecast, it becomes apparent why Madison has such a high ad growth projection for 2014. GroupM's estimated TV growth this year is 12%, print is 8.5% and radio is 10%, lower than Pitch-Madison's numbers. Only digital growth projected by GroupM is higher than Pitch-Madison's number. It stands at 35% to Pitch-Madison's 29.5% estimated this year.
While both GroupM and Pitch-Madison agree that print will be one of the key beneficiaries of the flurry of political ads that will flow this year, the convergence stops there. GroupM says that the share of TV in overall advertising will be largest, Pitch-Madison says it is print.
According to Pitch-Madison, print's share in total advertising for 2014 will be Rs 15,405 crore, followed by TV at Rs 14,282 crore and digital at Rs 3,950 crore.
GroupM, on the other hand, says that TV will constitute Rs 18,883 crore of the estimated Rs 43,065 crore total advertising for 2014, followed by print at Rs 16,238 crore and digital at Rs 3,402 crore.
The key categories that will advertise aggressively this year will include fast moving consumer goods, auto, telecom, banking & finance, retail and real estate, says Pitch-Madison. This will be on the back of an improvement in sentiment and the need to tide over the consumer slowdown.
| A Tale Of Two Reports | ||||||||
| Ad growth(%) | GroupM | Pitch-Madison | ||||||
| CY13 | CY14 | CY13 | CY14 | |||||
| TV | 13.8 | 12 | 8.2 | 15 | ||||
| 4.6 | 8.5 | 10 | 17 | |||||
| Radio | 7.4 | 10 | 18 | 15 | ||||
| Outdoor | 6 | 9 | 6.2 | 8.2 | ||||
| Digital | 30 | 35 | 32.4 | 29.5 | ||||
| Overall | 10 | 11.6 | 11.1 | 16.8 | ||||
| Source: GroupM, Pitch-Madison | ||||||||
