The bonhomie that the heads of states will display on the first day of the UN Climate Change conference in Paris on November 30 would at best last till the time they depart. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be a leading voice on Monday. But By Tuesday, the gloves would be off and the negotiations for the Paris agreement would have delved deep in to finding compromises that can provide a solution.
The draft for the Paris agreement, which was prepared in October this year through negotiations in Bonn, is riddled with differences between countries and these differences are not just between developed and developing countries but even between key countries that sit on the same side of this over-arching divide of global North (developed) and the global South (poor and developing countries).
We look at some of the key concerns that are bound to keep the negotiators up several nights at the Le Bourget airport in Paris – the venue for the talks. On some of these issues the differences between countries are so wide that a compromise will require a substantial and evident change of stance – always a recipe for embarrassment and loss of face in the domestic arena for the respective country’s leadership.
1) Does the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change matter: On paper all countries have accepted that the Paris agreement, like the Kyoto Protocol, is a tool to implement the original UN climate convention that was agreed to in 1992. But in reality developed countries are keen to turn the Paris agreement in to a global deal that supersedes the convention for all practical purposes. Developing countries like China India and many others are set to oppose that.
2) What is the goal of the treaty: Till date the goal has been to keep temperature rise in check. But some countries want this translated to mean complete decarbonisation of the global economy and yet others have other objectives. Developing countries want the right to development not to be subjugated in this process
3) Binding targets: Countries have pledged their emission reduction targets. But these are only pledges. Should they be binding internationally or should these be locked in by domestic laws and merely recorded as a loosely bound pledge in the agreement? US is keen not to bind its targets internationally.
4) Climate finance: Will there be a legally binding road-map following which the developed countries will meet their financial obligations. Both EU and the US are strongly opposed to this. Developing world has a near unanimity that the delivery of climate finance up to 2020 and beyond should be more concretely laid out in Paris.
5) Who contributes to climate finance: the US and EU want emerging economies to also pay in to the climate funds based on their current capacities. They do not want historical responsibility to be the basis for singling out the rich nations to deliver finance
6) How are the targets revised periodically: The emission reduction numbers don’t add for now and they need to be revised every 5 years or so. But how would this ratcheting up happen? Would it based on some criteria or left to the countries to decide domestically? Developed countries don’t accept any criteria that includes historical accumulated emissions
7) Reporting action: After 2020 once the agreement comes in to force countries will have to report back periodically how they are faring against their pledges. Should there be a continued differentiation in how developed and developing countries lacking resources report their actions. This could become the Trojan horse that brings parity between the two without saying as much.
8) Developing country targets: At the moment most developing countries have made their targets for the Paris agreement conditional on the nature of the Paris agreement as well as the delivery of finance and technology. Developed countries want at least a part if not the full target from each developing country to be enshrined unconditionally
9) The future carbon markets: Will there be a new international market for carbon trade mandated by the Paris agreement? The market provides an easier way out to developed countries especially if their targets to cut emissions to begin with are very unambitious. But industries in emerging economies can gain revenues out of it.
10) Loss and Damage: The most vulnerable countries want a mechanism to address inevitable loss and damage from climate change. G77 has a proposal supporting this. The Umbrella group of countries led by the US has a simple offer – no mechanism should exist.
11) Technology transfer: Developed countries oppose the proposals from different developing country groups including India to address issues of intellectual property resources, future technology development and an institutional arrangement for this under the Paris agreement.
12) Ex-ante review: Should the countries submit their emission targets to a review for adequacy even before they begin to implement these or should they be reviewed only later for whether countries are achieving what they promised to? Very strong views on this divide nations regardless of developed-developing divide.
13) Adaptation: Should all concerns of adaptation get an equal footing in the core Paris agreement or not? Developed countries see the core agreement as only about reducing emissions and accounting for these reductions. Everything else they would prefer to be put in less onerous decisions that the countries collectively take at Paris – known as COP decisions.
