Brazil nears 250,000 deaths, second Covid-19 wave still running rampant

Brazil's COVID-19 death toll, at nearly 250,000 on Thursday, is the world's second-highest for the same reason its second wave has yet to fade: Prevention was never made a priority.

Since the pandemic's start, Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro scoffed at the little flu and lambasted local leaders for imposing restrictions on activity; he said the economy must keep humming along to prevent worse hardship.

Even when he approved pandemic welfare payments for the poor, they weren't announced as a means to keep people home. And Brazilians remain out and about as vaccination has started up but rollout has proven far slower than was anticipated.

 

Brazil simply didn't have a response plan. We've been through this for the last year and still we don't have a clear plan, a national plan, Miguel Lago, executive director of Brazil's Institute for Health Policy Studies, which advises public health officials, told the Associated Press.

There's no plan, at all. And the same applies to vaccination.

Whereas other countries' daily cases and deaths have fallen, Latin America's largest nation is parked on an elevated plateau a grim repeat of mid-2020. In each of the last five weeks, Brazil has averaged more than 1,000 daily deaths. Official data showing a confirmed death toll of 249,957 will be updated later Thursday.

At least 12 Brazilian states are in the midst of a second wave even worse than the one faced in 2020, said Domingos Alves, an epidemiologist who has been tracking COVID-19 data.

This scenario is going to get worse, Alves told the AP, adding that the virus was spreading faster among the population. In Amazonas state, where the capital, Manaus, saw hospitals run out of oxygen last month, there have been more than 5,000 deaths in the first two months of the year, about as many as in all of 2020.

Alves and other public health experts consulted by the AP say the spread continues to be facilitated by authorities' reluctance to follow recommendations from international health organizations to implement stricter restrictions on activity.

It is up to governors and mayors to impose lockdowns or restrictions to contain the virus. The states of Sao Paulo and Bahia recently introduced curfews, asking residents to stay at home at night. But experts say the moves are too late and insufficient.

They are not containment measures; they are palliative measures, always taken after the fact, said Alves, who is also an adjunct professor of social medicine at the University of Sao Paulo. 'Lockdown' has become a curse word in Brazil."

Miguel Nicolelis, a prominent Brazilian neurologist, warned in January that Brazil had to either enter lockdown or we won't be able to bury our dead in 2021. He had been advising northeastern states on how to combat COVID-19, but recently left his position, dissatisfied with their refusal to go into lockdown, the Folha de S.Paulo newspaper reported.

Right now, Brazil is the largest open-air laboratory, where it is possible to observe the natural dynamics of the coronavirus without any effective containment measure, he wrote on Twitter on Tuesday. Everyone will witness the epic devastation."

There are some exceptions, but they remain marginal and have failed to inspire a broader movement.

Sao Luis, capital city of northeastern Maranhao state, was the first Brazilian city to go into full lockdown last May. It was successful, notwithstanding Bolsonaro's efforts to undermine the restrictions and sow doubt about their efficacy, according to the state's governor, Flvio Dino.

It has been very difficult to manage distance and prevention measures, Dino said, adding that the first obstacle was an economic and social one, especially after the federal government's emergency pandemic aid program ended last year.

Lago noted that Bolsonaro rarely even comments on the pandemic anymore, and has effectively moved on to other priorities, including securing support in Congress for loosening gun control laws and passing economic reforms. His administration is seeking to reinstate some COVID-19 welfare payments for a smaller group of needy Brazilians.

The only preventative measure Bolsonaro consistently supported was the use of treatments like hydroxychloroquine, which showed no benefit in rigorous studies.

Bolsonaro's administration has also adopted a hands-off approach regarding the vaccination campaign. It relied mostly on a deal to purchase a single vaccine, AstraZeneca, which has been slow in coming. The national immunization to date has relied mostly on Chinese-made CoronaVac shots secured by Sao Paulo state, though the federal government is now trying to buy others.

Brazil's decades of experience with successful vaccination programs and its large nationwide public health care network led many experts to believe that immunization even if it were to start with delay would be a relatively speedy affair. In previous campaigns, the nation of 210 million was able to vaccinate as many as 10 million people in a single day, health experts noted.

Five weeks after the first shot, Brazil has delivered shots to only 3.6% of its population. That is more than double Argentina and Mexico, but less than one-fourth that of Chile, according to Our World in Data, an online research site that compares official government statistics.

There is no way to be fast with a shortage of vaccines; that is the crucial point, said Carla Domingues, who for eight years coordinated Brazil's national vaccination program, until leaving her position in 2019. "Until there is greater supply, the speed will be slower, as you have to keep selecting who can be vaccinated.