Experts question study predicting fourth Covid wave in India in June

According to the recent modelling study by researchers at IIT-Kanpur, the fourth wave of the Covid in India may start around June 22 and peak from mid- to late-August

Forecasting models are good only for short-term projections and an IIT-Kanpur study predicting a fourth Covid wave in India in June may at best be “data astronomy” and guesswork, say several scientists.

Dispelling fears of another spike in cases in the next three months, they also took note of the fact that most people in India have had two vaccines and one natural infection. So even if there is a wave, the consequences in terms of hospitalisation and deaths should be manageable unless there is a new variant.

“Active cases are decreasing quite fast — and from looking at the