How world's ability to predict behaviour of monsoon has not improved at all

Of late, IMD has begun providing its breakups by the five major divisions and by calendar months

Rains have brought tears to the eyes of people in two distant parts of the world for two different reasons: Their overabundance in the Northeastern United States in the wake of an even weakened Hurricane Ida and their absence in most of India. Both have been unanticipated and we have had explanations such as global climate change in one case and unexpected behaviour of phenomena such as Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) in the other (see Sanjeeb Mukherjee, Busi­ness Standard, September 3, 2021). What they signify is how fraught with uncertainty predicting precipitation is, notwithstanding sophisticated multi-variate