The end to the three-week-long India-China stand-off in Ladakh's Western sector is believed to have come after India obliquely threatened to call off the visit by external affairs minister Salman Khurshid to China later this week, as well as put a big question mark over the visit of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang to India on May 20.
Last evening, India and China agreed to withdraw to their respective positions that obtained on April 15, thereby ending the three-week eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation between their troops. Khurshid will now go to Beijing on May 9 and the Chinese premier will come to Delhi on the appointed date.
Government sources insisted, on the condition of anonymity, that there was no deal between India and China, nor a quid pro quo. But the truth is that the latest stand-off has resulted in the creation of a "new equilibrium" between Asia's largest powers, in which both countries will now have to sit down anew for talks on how to deal with each other on their conflicting border claims.
Indian analysts say the Chinese deliberately wanted to bring to the frontburner the fact that the border was a "live" issue and that they had succeeded in doing so. They now had India's attention on this matter. But government sources point out, equally, that Delhi is willing to talk about all border-related issues and has always been willing to do so.
Under the circumstances, a "greater granularity" on the border mechanism may come into being, in which both sides sit down and talk about a greater predictability of behaviour on the border.
Clearly, India's border fortifications at Daulat Beg Oldi, an old Silk Road post that is at the trijunction of India-Pakistan-Tibet will not be affected.
A boundary settlement between India and China is being negotiated since 2005, when Special Representatives from both countries--national security advisor Shiv Shanker Menon is the Indian representative -have been discussing the framework around which both sides can settle the 4000-odd-km border.
The Chinese have refused to formalise the status quo, which is that they control Aksai Chin, while India keeps Arunachal Pradesh. India has often told the Chinese that there is no question of relinquishing control over Tawang, a piece of territory that Beijing wants because the sixth Dalai Lama was born there.
A second principle on no exchange of settled populations, said to have been finalised in 2005-06, has also been reopened by the Chinese recently. It is unclear why the Chinese have done so.
