Evolving El Niño casts a shadow on 2017 monsoon

La Niña, which causes bountiful rain, is ruled out for now

While it is gradually becoming  clearer that La Niña — which causes bountiful rain — is unlikely during the  monsoon this year, there is still no certainty as to what the status of El Niño, which causes less rain, will be.

El Niño, according to most models, is in an evolving state, something which makes predictions all the more difficult. An evolving El Niño (when sea surface temperatures move from cold to warm) and its impact on India’s southwest monsoon are both difficult to predict and any observation based on that is prone to correction. 

If supplementary conditions are not supportive,  an