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The latest data on people marrying later than earlier even in states like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar confirm the recent trend of erstwhile laggard states making a demographic transition faster than anticipated. It has rekindled hopes of a downward revision of the size of the country's future population when the next projection is made in a couple of years.
The 2011 Census data released last week shows that the mean female age at marriage had increased from 18.3 in 2001 to 19.3 years in 2011. The corresponding increase in the case of males was from 22.6 to 23.3 years in the same period. What is more, census data also shows that fewer women in the 15-24 age bracket are getting married compared to a decade ago. In fact, in the 15-19 age group, fewer women are marrying in Uttar Pradesh compared to the national average.
| FAVOURABLE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN EAG* STATES |
(Source: Census 2011 *EAG: Empowered action group ) |
What is noteworthy is that the rise in the mean age of marriage has led to a decline in total fertility rate in the 2001-11 decade. Fertility rate declined from 2.5 to 2.2 over the decade. Total fertility rate (TFR) represents the average number of children born to a woman and a TFR of 2.1 indicates a population reaching the replacement level.
"Fertility decline was sharp in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar in the last decade. And if you consider other factors, it seems probable that they are likely to make a demographic transition faster than anticipated," says K S James, a demographer at Bangalore-based Institute for Social and Economic Change.
A recent paper co-authored by James with K Srinivasan of the International Institute for Population Sciences, Mumbai, shows that in the decade gone by, the mean age at marriage in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh rose faster than the national average and they are now almost at par with demographically developed states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu. In fact, the rise in mean age at marriage in Bihar between 2001 and 2011 was almost equal to the rise in the preceding 40 years. Uttar Pradesh has shown a similar improvement.
The paper argues that "the data show a rapid convergence of the SMAM (singulate mean age at marriage) values of the other states to the Kerala level. Thus the less-developed states are catching up with the advanced ones in their SMAM values." With the national level data showing a positive correlation between rise in mean age at marriage and decline in total fertility rate, there are possibilities that population growth in states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh will decline at a rapid clip henceforth.
"The age at marriage does have some impact on the total fertility rate. But other factors like use of contraceptives play a much bigger role. The rise in mean age at marriage in states like Bihar and UP is therefore a positive development. But for fertility rate to fall substantially, you need other contributory factors," James said over the phone.
Data suggest that even contraceptive prevalence rate has inched up significantly in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh in recent years. In the former, it has gone up from 34 to 37.6 per cent during 2005-06 to 2010-11. And in the case of Uttar Pradesh, the change was from 43.6 per cent to 49.9 per cent in the same period.
Even on key parameters of infant mortality rate (IMR) and maternal mortality rate (MMR), Bihar and Uttar Pradesh have shown considerable progress in the last few years. In fact, Bihar's infant mortality rate at 43 is almost at par with the national average of 42. Uttar Pradesh's IMR at 53 in 2012, though way below the national average, has been a significant improvement from the level of 61 in 2010. IMR was as high as 64 in Bihar and 84 in Uttar Pradesh in 2000. Demographers argue that lower IMR tend to induce people to have smaller families.
Favourable demographical factors have contributed to significant fall in decadal population growth rate in erstwhile BIMARU states, now known as EAG (empowered action group) states. During 2001-2011, it fell by a whopping 4 percentage points. The decline was nearly 6 percentage points in Uttar Pradesh and a much sharper 7 percentage points in Rajasthan. A government report called 2011 census a "milestone in the demographic history of the country" when growth rate fell for the first time ever in EAG states. EAG states consist of UP, Bihar, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Orissa.
The change in EAG states will have significant impact at the national level. According to the 2006 projection of National Population Commission, the country's population is estimated to reach 1,400 million by 2026. The projection was based on census results of 2001. Demographers now say that subsequent data show that that while dramatic changes are unlikely, signs of favourable demographic conditions in two of the most populous states - Uttar Pradesh and Bihar - may lead to downward revision in the projection.
The 2006 projection had estimated that more than 50 per cent of the total addition in the country's population will be contributed by EAG states alone. With Uttar Pradesh alone contributing nearly 22 per cent of the demographic growth. Now that there are visible markers of changes in terms of mean age at marriage going up and usage of contraceptive increasing, there are chances that the country's population will reach the stabilisation level earlier than anticipated.
