Mathematical models on severity of Covid-19 failed in India: IJMR editorial

Several mathematical models projected the severity of pandemic in terms of cases and deaths and at least in the context of India, none of these proved correct

Various mathematical models on the severity of the Covid-19 pandemic in India carried a "strong element of bias and used assumptions" to predict cases and deaths, an editorial published in ICMR's Indian Journal of Medical Research has said.

It said it "is a huge risk" to solely rely on these models for policy decisions on advance planning since predicting infectious diseases for a new pathogen is an "extremely perilous proposition" and hence it should be avoided.

The editorial 'Lessons learnt during the first 100 days of Covid-19 pandemic in India' is penned by Rajesh Bhatia, former director of Communicable Diseases