Met dept maintains 'above normal' monsoon forecast

North, central, south India to get very good showers; July to get more rain than August

India Meteorological Department (IMD), in an announcement on Thursday, retained its earlier ‘above normal’ forecast for this year’s southwest monsoon, at 106 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA).

Heavy rain is expected over northwest, central and south peninsular India. If accurate, this might be the heaviest monsoon rainfall since 1994. And, importantly, also distributed well.

In June, the southwest monsoon might remain ‘below normal’, mainly due to a delayed start. It should, feels IMD, pick up pace from July and reach a peak by September. The rains are expected to hit Kerala in the next four to five days.

IMD said rain in July and August is expected to be 107 per cent of the LPA and 104 per cent of the LPA, respectively. The forecast is with an error range of plus/minus nine per cent.

  The department said in the northwest, comprising Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and  Delhi, rain this year was expected to be 108 per cent of the LPA, nearly ‘above normal’ by the region’s parameters. Here, rainfall of 92-108 per cent of the LPA is considered normal.

 “It is difficult to say whether such heavy showers in north India could lead to floods, as the quantum of rain in this part of the country is lower than other regions,” IMD’s Director-General, L S Rathore, told reporters.

In central India, comprising Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat, also the main belt for oilseeds, sugarcane and cotton growing, the southwest monsoon is expected to be 113 per cent of the LPA. In southern India, above normal at 113 per cent of the LPA.

The rains in the east and northeastern parts are expected to remain slightly weak at 94 per cent of the LPA but then, the overall amount here is higher than elsewhere. The region comprises the main paddy growing states of Bihar, Jharkhand, Assam, West Bengal and Odisha. This forecast is with an error range of plus/minus eight per cent.

Rathore said they had some discussion with the ministry of agriculture about the advisories needed for farmers. Further discussion would be held, now that the regional predictions have come.

The main reason for the better than expected southwest monsoon is fading away of the El Niño weather effect (which hits rain in this part of the globe), and emergence of the opposite La Niña condition, during the second half of the four-month season that starts from June.

“Recent changes in the atmospheric conditions over the Pacific reflect the weakening of El Niño conditions and 50 per cent chance of La Niña conditions developing during the monsoon,” said D S Pai, director of long-range forecasting in IMD. The latter effect might cause the monsoon to extend beyond its normal withdrawal date of end-September.

In the past 24 La Niña years from 1901 to 2015, rainfall in 16 was ‘above normal’.