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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday revised its projection of the 2015 monsoon from slightly less than normal to deficient as the El Niño weather phenomenon gained strength, pushing parts of the country to the brink of an expected drought.
The new projection came a few days after official figures showed production in the farm and allied sectors contracted in the second half of 2014-15, but the finance ministry said inflation would be reined in.
The monsoon was expected to be deficient this year at 88 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) against the earlier estimate of below average at 93 per cent, Science and Technology Minister Harsh Vardhan said.
The met department said in north-west India, comprising major grain producing states such as Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, the south-west monsoon this year was expected to be at only 85 per cent of LPA.
In central India, comprising Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat, rains would be deficient at 90 per cent.
In south, peninsular India comprising Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala, rainfall would be below normal at 92 per cent of LPA, while in north-east India, including West Bengal, Bihar and Assam, monsoon would be deficient at 90 per cent. The forecast, with a model error of plus or minus eight per cent, also means no part of the country is expected to get normal rains in 2015.
IMD said while in July rains were expected to be below normal at 92 per cent of LPA, in August they are expected to be deficient at 90 per cent.
Rainfall below 90 per cent of LPA, an average 89 cm rainfall received in the last 50 years, is considered deficient and between 90 and 96 per cent below normal.
The probability of a weak monsoon has risen from 68 per cent earlier to 93 per cent. The forecast is with a model error of four per cent.
"Both the south-west and north-east monsoons failed in 2014. For 2015, IMD's prediction of a 93 per cent probability of a weak monsoon is a worrying cause for all of us," Vardhan said. "It is not just an unusually hot summer - this is climate change," he added.
Less than normal rain will lower kharif output and exert pressure on food prices, which are anyway poised to climb because of the damage to standing crops by unseasonal rain.
Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian said, "Last year, the monsoon was not very good and through government policy we managed to contain inflation. We intend to do that this time around should the monsoon be as bad as some people fear."
D S Pai, director of the long-range forecast in IMD, told Business Standard: "We are expecting a far more pronounced impact of El Niño on Indian rainfall than earlier." El Niño is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that upsets weather patterns across the globe.
The 2014 monsoon was deficient at 88 per cent of LPA and almost 30 per cent of the country faced drought. Kharif grain production fell by almost 10 million tonnes from the prior year. Unseasonal rain also hit the rabi harvest and total grain output dropped to a four-year low of 251.12 million tonnes.
The country has adequate stocks of wheat and rice. The Food Corporation of India (FCI)'s grain stock on May 1 was 59.13 million tonnes against a requirement of 41.12 million tonnes.
Water stored in 91 important reservoirs across the country on May 28 was 43.14 billion cubic metres, 136 per cent of the average storage in the last 10 years.
"We revise our GDP growth forecast down by 50 basis points to 7.4 per cent from 7.9 per cent and expect agriculture growth to be 1.5 per cent on a weak base of 0.2 per cent in FY15. On the demand side, we expect consumption revival to be moderate, cushioned somewhat by lower inflation and interest-rate cuts," rating agency CRISIL said in a note on Tuesday.
Private weather forecaster Skymet, however, stuck to its forecast of a normal monsoon. Its chief executive, Jatin Singh, in a blogpost said the reason for his confidence was first, an evolving El Niño seldom fails the monsoon for two consecutive years; second, the probability of back-to-back drought was rare; and third, a positive Indian Ocean Diapole - a phenomenon in the equatorial waters of the Indian Ocean - might neutralise the adverse impact of El Niño.
Ramesh Chand, director of the National Centre for Agriculture Economics and Policy Research, said, "This will create water stress. The saving grace is water in the major reservoirs rose on unseasonal rain. Crops in rainfed areas like pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals are worst hit by uneven rain."
Madan Sabnavis, chief economist, CARE Ratings, said, "Prices of crops such as urad and tur pulses and soyabean oilseeds could be under pressure if the rains fail."
