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The southwest monsoon, the lifeline of millions of farmers is now expected to hit the Kerala coast only around June 5, almost four days behind the usual onset on June 1.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had last month said the monsoon would arrive around May 30, two days ahead of schedule. The forecast was with a model error of plus and minus four days.
"The onset of monsoon is now expected around June 5 " D P Yadav, spokesman of IMD, told Business Standard.
A delay in arrival of monsoon would mean the current heat wave across some parts of the country might be prolonged. A delayed onset might not have a direct bearing on sowing of kharif crops if the momentum was maintained, particularly in July.
The rains had reached the Andaman coast on May 16, almost four days before its scheduled arrival but failed to gather strength thereafter.
"Only rainfall cannot be construed as manifestation of the monsoon. Along with rain, humidity, wind direction, wind strength and outgoing long-wave radiation in the Indian Ocean, in the proximity of the onset area, need to meet the stipulated standards. Absence of any one of the criteria puts a question mark on onset of monsoon," private weather forecasting agency Skymet said in its daily weather update.
State-run IMD had said rains would be below normal in 2015, at 93 per cent of the long period average (LPA), while Skymet had said it would be normal at 102 per cent of the LPA. The Met office would update its forecast in the middle of June.
Jatin Singh, chief executive of Skymet, said multiple weather systems would bring in a prolonged wet spell in almost all of north India. Rain and thunderstorms would continue till June 4. No singular weather system bears the strength to bring such prolonged and widespread rainfall activity. "In this case, the western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir and the induced cyclonic circulation over central Pakistan and adjoining Rajasthan will work in tandem to bring rain over the entire north India," Singh added.
