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India’s southwest monsoon is expected to cover the entire country by July 15 and reach Delhi around June 30, private weather forecasting agency, Skymet said on Friday, a day after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecast the onset of rains on May 30.
The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus two days.
Skymet said the rains would reach Kerala between 27 and 29 of this month. If the forecast is right, the onset and progress of southwest monsoon in 2015 will be well within the normal dates, and could aid in timely sowing of kharif crops.
This could also signal that the El Niño (a weather phenomenon that disturbs the formation of clouds) might not be having a significant impact on the June rains.
According to Skymet, after its onset, there can be a slight let-up in showers and the monsoon is expected to reach Mumbai in the western coast and Kolkata in the eastern coast between June 11 and 14.
It added that most central and eastern parts of the country are expected to get covered by the third week of the next month. The private weather forecaster had said that overall, during the four-month southwest monsoon season, rains would be normal at 102 per cent of the long period average (LPA). This forecast is with a model error of plus and minus four per cent.
State-run IMD in its first official forecast for the 2015 southwest monsoon, had said that rains this year could be below normal at 93 per cent of the LPA, with a model error of plus and minus four per cent.
The vast divergence in the forecast made by Skymet and IMD is primarily due to their respective interpretation of the impact that El Niño would have on Indian monsoon.
IMD had said there is 80-90 per cent chance of El Niño and it could impact the monsoon; according to Skymet, it will not.
A good southwest monsoon will boost farm growth and ease the pressure on prices.
