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The country’s southwest monsoon, lifeline of millions of farmers, is expected to arrive over the Kerala coast on June 3, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said today. The prediction is with a model error of plus or minus four days, the Met office said.
It said all the six parameters it had studied showed the monsoon was likely to set over the Indian mainland around June 3. The four-month southwest monsoon season enters India from Kerala and thereafter covers the entire country in the next few weeks. The rains start retreating from the northern parts of the country around September-end.
The Met office said the monsoon might come over the Andaman islands earlier than scheduled. “This year, under the influence of tropical cyclone ‘Mahasen’, currently located over the central Bay of Bengal, the low-level cross-equatorial monsoon flow has appeared over the south Andaman Sea and adjoining south Bay of Bengal. Further, the strengthening and deepening of this flow during the next few days is likely to result in increased rainfall activity over the area. This may lead to advance of the monsoon over the Andaman Sea slightly earlier than its normal date,” the Met office said.
It also said previous data suggest absence of a one-to-one association of the date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea with the date of onset over Kerala.
Earlier, the Met office had predicted rains during the monsoon, vital for about 60 per cent of India’s farmland without irrigation facilities, would be normal this year.
Agriculture is crucial also because it generates demand in rural areas for goods produced by industry and the services sector. However, through the years, the importance of agriculture in the overall economy has declined substantially. An oft-cited period in this regard is 2009, which saw the most severe drought in 30 years. Despite that, the economy grew 8.6 per cent in 2009-10. Agricultural and allied sectors grew 0.8 per cent that year.
Last year, though the IMD had predicted a normal monsoon, rains turned out to be below-normal, with a late revival. In 2012-13, agriculture and allied activities are estimated to have grown 1.8 per cent, while the overall economy is estimated to have grown at a decade low of five per cent. The government has projected the economy to grow about six per cent this financial year.
The central bank predicted inflation to be around 5.5 per cent this year and its projections are based on normal monsoon, domestic demand-supply balance and the outlook for global commodity prices.
Rangarajan on agri output
Agriculture and allied sectors could achieve a higher growth rate of 3.4 per cent this financial year if the country receives normal monsoon, the PM’s Economic Advisory Council Chairman C Rangarajan said on Wednesday. The agriculture and allied sectors are estimated to have grown by just 1.8 per cent in 2012-13. The drought in Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan and Gujarat because of poor monsoon had affected crop production. “All indication are that monsoon will be normal, we expect agriculture sector to do well this year," Rangarajan said at the Assocham conference on gold.
