'Monster quake' could follow recent spate of disasters, says seismologist; not all agree

Media reports in January this year had revealed that the MHA felt that India could be hit by massive earthquakes

During the past two months, unusually active seismic activities have been witnessed around the globe, with a string of powerful quakes jolting Ecuador, Japan, Myanmar, Indonesia, and Afghanistan, killing people and triggering tsunami alerts.

According Britain's The Express, the frequency of these quakes has sparked fears of of a "monster quake" in the scientific community.

The Express reported that "scientists say there has been an above average number of significant earthquakes across south Asia and the Pacific since the start of the year".

The report came a day after Saturday evening's strong 7.8-magnitude earthquake in Ecuador, which has already left at least 246 people dead and injured nearly 2,500.

 

Additionally, two earthquakes, which struck back to back last week, have left at least 42 people dead in Japan.  

Geophysicists now believe, after the spate of high-intensity earthquakes which rattled different parts of the world, that certain "high risk zones" around the world do require a close watch. 

More importantly, it has reignited the question whether the Earth is experiencing or about to experience another round of seismically-active period. 

The dire prediction

The Express report quoted an earlier statement by seismologist Roger Bilham from the University of Colorado. Before the recent spate of quakes, Bilham had said: "The current conditions might trigger at least four earthquakes greater than 8.0 in magnitude. And if they delay, the strain accumulated during the centuries provokes more catastrophic mega earthquakes."

Indian experts agree

Bilham's statement found resonance in India. Media reports in January this year had revealed that India could be hit by massive earthquakes, with a magnitude of 8.2 or greater on the Richter scale.

According to reports, Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA's) National Institute of Disaster Management (NIDM), in an assessment following the 2015 Nepal quake, had warned of enhanced risk around the "ring of fire garlanding the entire north India especially the mountains". 

The report quoted MHA’s disaster management experts as saying that quakes with a higher intensity than the one which struck Manipur in January, 2016, were likely to hit the Himalayan region in the future. 

A series of recent earthquakes – Manipur (January 2016), Nepal (May 2015) and Sikkim (2011) – which measured 6.7-7.3 on the Richter scale have re-ruptured tectonic plates that had developed cracks due to previous incidents, said the reports. 

Earlier in January this year, NIDM director Santosh Kumar had told the Times of India that the interconnected plates across Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar and India posed a bigger danger. Kumar predicted that a disaster of bigger magnitude could hit hill states, parts of Bihar, UP and even Delhi — which fall under the second worst seismic Zone-IV classification. The North-East and other hill states fall under severe seismic Zone-V.

Speaking to The Express, BK Rastogi, director general of the Ahmedabad-based Institute of Seismological Research, said: "An earthquake of the same (Nepal, 2015) magnitude is overdue. That may happen either today or 50 years from now in the region of the Kashmir, Himachal, Punjab and Uttrakhand Himalayas...."

Not everyone is totally sold on the idea

According to a report from Sunday, experts have noted that both the magnitudes and frequencies of the recent quakes were "within a normal range". 

However, they did caution that vigilance is required in certain areas. 

It is hard to judge whether the Earth is experiencing another seismic-active period, Randy Baldwin, a geophysicist with the US Geological Survey, told China's state-run Xinhua news agency.

However, Baldwin did agree that quake-prone zones around the world could see strong shocks in the future.

Experts are divided on the causes of the quakes. They say it's complicated but point out the geographic location of Japan and Indonesia, both of which sit on the Circum-Pacific Seismic Belt, is the main reason behind such frequent tremors.

The belt, which extends all the way through the US Pacific coast, China's Taiwan, the Philippines and New Zealand, releases about three quarters of quake-discharged energy from the interior of our planet.

According to the report, though it may seem too early to sound an alarm for a new wave of disastrous earthquakes, some scientists insist that certain "high risk zones" do require attention.