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Ahead of the arrival of the monsoon in June, water reservoirs have sufficient storage due to good winter rains earlier this year, improving the prospects of hydro power availability and kharif crops. The level of water stored in 84 reservoirs across the country is nearly the same as that recorded last year---33 billion cubic metres (bcm), or 22 per cent of the total capacity.
“The current storage is 99 per cent of the storage in the corresponding period last year and 120 per cent of the average storage in the last 10 years,” Central Water Commission said in its latest reservoir bulletin.
Storage in reservoirs in the north stands at 4.9 bcm, 28 per cent of the capacity and the same as last year’s level; reservoirs in eastern regions also have a storage of 4.9 bcm, 26 per cent of their capacity, against 14 per cent last year. Those in the west have a storage of 6.4 bcm, 26 per cent of the capacity, against 25 per cent last year. However, reservoirs in the southern regions, which have the highest capacity of water storage at 51 bcm, have a storage of only five bcm, or 10 per cent of their capacity. This is in contrast to 18 per cent storage last year, a concern for the four states in the region — Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala — which are already reeling under power cuts.
In line with the comfortable water storage levels, this year, hydro power generation in the country has shown a marginal improvement. The country generated 10.9 billion units of hydro power between April 1 and May 9, against 10.4 billion units in the corresponding period last year.
Reservoir levels have risen since the beginning of this year as winter rains (between January and February), were 26 per cent above normal. Rainfall in 29 subdivisions was either normal or excess, while in seven subdivisions, rains were deficient. Last year, winter rains were four per cent below normal.
As of now, prospects for kharif crops seem good because of the comfortable water levels in major reservoirs across the country. The India Meteorological Department (IMD), in its first official forecast for this year, predicted a normal monsoon, with rains expected to stand at 98 per cent of the long-period average. However, concerns have been raised over rainfall prospects in southern parts of the country, especially Kerala and Tamil Nadu. The concerns would, to a large extent, be addressed if water levels in reservoirs in these regions remain comfortable.
According to a recent analysis by the National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCMSL), India’s largest private warehousing and weather data provider, food production in the coming kharif season is expected to rise eight per cent. According to the study, production of rice is expected to rise 5.13 per cent over the Centre’s third advanced estimate for the 2012-13 season (92.75 million tonnes, or mt). Production of oilseeds is expected to increase 20.63 per cent over the 2012-13 output of 17.6 mt, while production of groundnut is estimated to rise 87 per cent to 6.46 mt.
The study, based on NCMSL’s in-house commodity research and market feedback, shows the only crop that might see a fall in production is sugarcane — it is estimated to drop 6.27 per cent to 334.73 mt, owing to a decline in acreage. Sowing of kharif crops for the 2013-14 season had started on a slow note in some parts across the country, sources said.
