Telangana with Hyderabad as capital may not succeed as a state, suggests an unpublished note of Justice (retired) B N Srikrishna committee. Reason: the move could result in stagnation of the state's economy and trigger fresh communal tensions between two communities
According to the note, which was submitted to the Union home ministry along with the main report on December 30, 2010, there is a strong possibility that such a decision would result in the birth of extremists. It warns the Naxalites, who were stamped out of Andhra Pradesh years ago, could make a comeback. Plus, the new state could create more frustration among people who agitated for it in the long run, it says. The note details the likely fallout of law and order situation in all scenarios related to the creation of Telangana. The main report doesn't mention such details.
This note assumes significance in the backdrop of a Group of Ministers (GoM), which is to soon take a call on Telangana. The ministers are faced with a dilemma about whether to make Hyderabad, the capital of Telangana, as demanded by the pro-Telangana agitators or make it a joint capital of Telangana and the rest of Andhra Pradesh for the next 10 years.
The second decision is likely to result in a fresh spate of agitationacross the state. The GoM has held at least three marathon meetings so far and is likely to present a draft Bill to the Cabinet next week. If Hyderabad remains exclusively with Telangana, the Srikrishna committee predicts various repercussions such as renewed cycle of vicious agitation and adverse impact on revenue generation. When contacted, Justice Srikrishna confirmed the existence of such a note, but refused to comment.
According to the documents, reviewed by Business Standard, Hyderabad as the capital of the new state may satisfy the emotional aspirations of pro-Telangana people, but it is unlikely to yield economic benefits. This may result in frustration among the youth, professionals and farmers. "This may lead to scapegoating, leading to targeted attacks on Seemandhra (residual Andhra Pradesh) settlers and their properties," it says.
The decision to create Telangana was taken in October after the Union government failed to assuage pro-Telangana agitators and put an end to a long-standing political turmoil in the undivided Andhra Pradesh. Scores of people have lost their lives and many political leaders, including legislators and Union ministers, have resigned during the course of action.
Political instability
According to the committee, the situation doesn't offer an optimistic picture. It observed that pro-Telangana political parties are making gigantic promises, which may not materialise once the state is formed because Hyderabad largely depends on Seemandhara for resources and skilled workers.
"Most of the industries are located in and around Hyderabad. With the bifurcation of the state and Hyderabad in Telangana region, incidents of agitations, dharnas and even violence are expected. This may lead to flight of capital, stagnant growth and disincentives for entrepreneurs, leading to a slowdown of economic activity," its says.
"In short, Hyderabad may witness a vicious cycle of agitations, slow down of economic activity and greater frustration." A similar agitation may be witnessed in Seemandhra region, too.
Maoists violence
The Left-wing extremists are likely to gain. Some of them have been instrumental in garnering support for the movement and would try to exploit the situation.
"The new state is likely to be soft towards them initially. By the time they (new state) realise the Maoists menace, it may be too late to handle them with a bifurcated police force, contributing to a weaker response to the problem," says the note.
Andhra Pradesh is the only state among other Maoist-affected states that have successfully handled the Left-wing extremists in the past, especially when most of the ultra leaders belonged to the state and used its boundaries to spread the menace to other states.
"It is likely that the Maoists will extend their activities from these neighbouring states (Chhattisgarh and Maharashtra) to Telangana especially in the districts of Adilabad, Karimnagar, Warangal, Khammam, parts of Nizamabad and Medak in north Telangana and Mahboobnagar and Nalgonda in south Telangana," it says. The report adds that slowing of economic activity will drive the poor into the arms of extremists.
Communal violence
Naxalism is not the only problem Telangana is staring at. It is equally faced with the threat of communal tensions. Hyderabad had witnessed many communal riots, many of which were instigated by trivial issues.
The committee has identified Hyderabad city, Nirmal and Bhainsa of Adilabad; Nizambad, Bodhan and Kamareedy of Nizambad district; Jagityal, Korutla, Karimnagar towns of Karimnagar district; Zaheerabad and Medak towns in Medak district; Nalgonda, Bhongir areas of Nalgonda district; Mahbubnagar and Naratanpet areas of Mahbubnagar district; Tandur and Vikarabad of Rangareedy districts as pockets that are sensitive and prone to communal riots.
"There is a certain sense of mutual suspicion between the two communities who are living in these areas. If communal passions become an additional factor in an atmosphere where unemployment, social unrest exists, it may give rise to birth of militant jihadi elements," the committee writes ."Telangana has a large number of Muslim pockets and to counter Muslim influence, Hindu fundamentalists may compete with them and try to polarise the Hindu population."
Caste issues
The committee says that most of the foot soldiers of the Telangana movement are from the backward and Schedule Castes. They are aspiring to acquire political space and leadership in the new state. "If these aspirations are not realised, it would become an important factor in contributing to social unrest."
