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India's east coast braced on Friday for a cyclone covering half the size of the country, with tens of thousands of residents in low-lying areas fleeing their homes after authorities forecast a risk to life and extensive damage once the storm hits land.
Mrutunjay Mohapatra, chief of the cyclone warning division of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), said Phailin was likely to make landfall around 6 pm on Saturday. The IMD said the cyclone would hit Gopalpur, between Kalingapatnam and the port of Paradip, in Odisha.
Satellite images showed the storm covering an area roughly half the size of India. The IMD described Phailin, meaning sapphire in Thai, as a "very severe cyclonic storm" with wind speed of 210-220 km an hour and a storm surge of about 15 feet. The US Navy's Joint Typhoon Warning Centre predicted gusts of up to 305 km an hour.
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The power department usually cuts supply if wind speed crosses 75 km/h. With Phailin expected to touch 220 km/hour, industries in the region are bracing for impact:
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After hitting land, the system would weaken into a severe cyclonic storm with wind speed between 90 km/h and 110 km/h at 5.30 am on Sunday, the IMD said. The system would then lose strength to become a deep depression and by Monday turn into a depression, with wind speed of 40-50 km/h gusting to 60 km/h.
Odisha is bracing for the impact. The vulnerable districts are Ganjam, Gajapati, Puri, Jagatsingpur, Kendrapara, Nayagarh and Khurda. Evacuation orders have been given in Bhadrak and Balasore districts, too. The state has cancelled the Puja holidays of government employees. Andhra Pradesh Revenue Minister N Raghuveera Reddy said 40,000 people in Visakhapatnam, 2,000 in Srikakulam and 4,000 in Vizianagaram districts have been evacuated.
Eric Holthaus, a meteorologist for Quartz magazine, said: "A recent satellite estimate put Phailin's current intensity on a par with 2005's Hurricane Katrina in the US and just barely stronger than the 1999 cyclone at its peak. That would mean Phailin could be the strongest cyclone ever measured in the Indian Ocean."
The Odisha government has set a target of "zero casualty" and ordered speedy evacuation. "We plan to evacuate about 100,000 families in Ganjam district by tomorrow (Saturday) morning," the state's Special Relief Commissioner, Pradeep Kumar Mohapatra, said. "Within 12 hours of cyclone strike we will try to clear all the roads. Within 24 hours we will try to restore water supply and electricity."
Helicopters were on standby in West Bengal, ready to drop food packets into isolated areas, officials said. Authorities warned of extensive damage to crops, village dwellings and old buildings, as well as disruption of power, water and rail services.
Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N Kiran Kumar Reddy reviewed the government's preparedness to face the impact of the cyclone. A round-the-clock control room has been set up in the Hyderabad Secretariat and district collectors have been told to take necessary measures.
Paradip stopped cargo operations on Friday after the cyclone warning, port chairman Sudhanshu Shekhara Mishra said. "We are also not allowing berthing." He said all vessels were ordered to leave the port, which handles coal, crude oil and iron ore. But Visakhapatnam port was functioning.
India's largest gas field - the Reliance Industries-operated D6 natural gas block - lies in the Cauvery Basin further down the east coast. The company said it was not expecting to be affected by the weather.
East Coast Railway has planned to regulate and cancel about 24 passenger trains between Visakhapatnam and Bhadrak on the Howrah-Chennai Main Line route on Saturday.
Residents reported 12-feet waves, but fishermen hoped the storm would pass over and were reluctant to leave their boats.
Defence Minister A K Antony has asked the armed forces to be ready to move in to Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. Two IAF IL-76 aircraft have already airlifted National Disaster Response Force teams and equipment to Bhubneshwar. IAF assets have been kept on stand by at various bases, including Raipur, Nagpur, Jagdalpur, Barrackpore, Ranchi and Gwalior.
London-based storm tracking service Tropical Storm Risk placed Phailin in the most intense Category-5 of powerful storms, evoking memories of a devastating "super cyclone" that killed 10,000 people on India's east coast in 1999. That storm battered Odisha for 30 hours with wind speed reaching 300 kph.
India's weather authorities were reluctant to make comparisons to the 1999 cyclone, and most forecasters expected it to weaken upon reaching the coast. Odisha's storm preparedness has improved since 1999.
