In politics, the winter of 2012 will forever be known as the season of deals.
“You will see new political coalitions and new allies of the United Progressive Alliance in the next session (of Parliament),” Minister of State for Parliamentary Affairs Rajiv Shukla told Business Standard on the last day of the winter session.
In the last few weeks, Orissa Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik has been writing virtually a letter a day to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. Patnaik’s party, the Biju Janata Dal, has 14 MPs in the Lok Sabha. Having shrugged off its ally, the BJP, in 2009, the BJD has made it clear it is single and ready to mingle – subject to certain conditions.
During the PM’s visit to Orissa yesterday to inaugurate the Indian Science Congress at KIIT in Bhubaneswar, Patnaik made some demands: a windfall tax on miners; and special category state status to Orissa.
The Chief Minister had earlier written to the Prime Minister asking for a windfall tax at the rate of 50 per cent of the super normal profit earned by the miners in line with Mineral Resource Rent Tax imposed by the Australia government. In December, the state cabinet approved the imposition of the tax. According to the constitution, imposing taxes on minerals is the prerogative of the Centre.
Orissa has had a long-standing demand for special category status, and it has been rejected by the Central government several times. The condition for granting special category status includes higher presence of tribals and proximity to international border, among others.
Senior BJD sources are clear that support to the Congress can only be issue-based. “We have lost ground when we have supported the Congress in the past. So we have to be clear how far we can go without jeopardising our base,” said a top BJD leader.
Congress managers say they have many options. Party General Secretary Rahul Gandhi’s strategy in Uttar Pradesh is to bring the Congress to a point where it becomes a king-maker: that is, it has both the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) vying to give support.
“The idea is to take the party to 60, up from the current 22. If that happens, we can take our pick – to prevent each other from forming the government. Both the BSP and the SP will offer us support,” said a party leader.
Although members of the Lohia Vahini, the youth wing of the SP, waved black flags as Gandhi visited Aligarh, and in November during a public meeting in Allahabad, there was a clash between SP and Congress supporters.
All signs are that an active deal between the SP and the Congress is possible. To prevent this, the BSP is also reaching out to the Congress, especially in Muslim majority areas. The BSP reckons that to keep the SP in check, it needs to deploy the Congress’s Muslim card.
The Cabinet approval in December to a 4.5 per cent job quota for minorities within the 27 per cent OBC bracket was aimed at checking the Samajwadi Party – which, although deeply unhappy about the move, cannot express its unhappiness publicly for fear of antagonising its Muslim base.
The Congress knows that it will be in a sweet spot, but only if it manages to get at least 60 seats in the 403-member UP Assembly. Having the numbers will put it in the position of being a kingmaker. It can then leverage its position in UP at the Centre as well.
The Congress’s priority is to have a wider base of allies at the Centre that does not leave it at the mercy of the mercurial Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamul Congress.
Banerjee has so far been able to exercise her veto and hamstring the Congress into postponing several decisions, including opening up foreign direct investment in retail, liberalisation of pensions and the Teesta water accord with Bangladesh. If the Congress can corral other allies into a seat-sharing arrangement — with political power as the cementing force — Banerjee’s posturing could become irrelevant.
