Can US secretary of state John Kerry signal America's intention to redefine the relationship with India by showing support for the latter's membership in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) organisation?
Kerry begins a strategic dialogue with Indian counterpart Salman Khurshid in New Delhi tomorrow. Many issues need resolving, the biggest being whether the Barack Obama administration is both willing and interested in raising the bar of the India-US strategic partnership to a new level. And, whether Manmohan Singh has the political capital to invest in America in the dying days of his own government's present tenure.
The biggest issues on the table increasingly revolve around economic strategy. With the confirmation of Michael Froman as the new US Trade Representative, the question is if the US will make that offer to India to join the world's biggest trading bloc, APEC. Speculation is rife in political circles at Washington DC that Froman is not overly keen to support India's entry into APEC, as this might be seen by the Chinese as another building block in a US strategy to contain them. With a mounting trade deficit with Beijing, topping $300 billion, the Obama administration might not want to go out of its way to signal engagement with India at the expense of China.
Another issue bound to create some friction in the talks is Washington's support for the recent opening of an office by the Afghan Taliban in Qatar, heavily criticised by Afghan president Hamid Karzai. India, a self-confessed friend of Karzai, is concerned the office will give the Taliban leverage to dislodge the gains made by the Afghans and the US in the past 12 years inside that country. And, that the US is desperately trying to find ways to transfer power by the time of its self-imposed deadline of April 2104.
India's other concern is that Pakistan's army chief, Ashfaq Kayani, brokered the talks between the US and the Afghan Taliban, persuading Taliban commanders to come on board. That would give the Pak army undue influence in the political evolution of the new Afghan government after the Americans leave in 2014. Despite the election of Pakistan Muslim League (N) leader Nawaz Sharif as the new prime minister of Pakistan, someone seen to be both pro-India and pro-business, Indian officials believe the army remains fully in command of Pakistan's Afghan policy.
Kerry is likely to raise the issue of India further opening its market to consumer retail and US defence manufacturers. As well as hope Delhi will level the playing field on the construction of civil nuclear plants by private US companies, just as it has done with Russia and France.
There is some concern that India has not been as amenable to opening its market to US drug manufacturers or protecting their patents; Delhi has responded to these accusations as being unfair. Indian officials say Novartis' cancer drug Glivec's patent was struck down by the Supreme Court in the interests of the many rather than the privileged fe, and this was not a violation of US intellectual property rights.
Kerry will meet both prime minister Manmohan Singh and leader of the opposition Sushma Swaraj. It will be interesting to see if he is able to strike a rapport with India's political class. Kerry is likely to find himself perceived in India to be "close" to the Pakistanis, though the US is going out of its way to tell a variety of Indian constituencies that it is not interested in again restoring the hyphen in the India-Pak relationship.
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There is much that is ongoing in the India-US relationship, primarily related to education and defence, that can open new doors in the decades to come. Human resource development minister Pallam Raju declared he was seriously interested in replicating the US model of community colleges in India during his visit to Washington DC, as well as Temple University and Boston University in May. He said he wanted to set up 200 of those colleges in India.
A track-two business delegation in June was told by several US leaders, including deputy secretary of state Bill Burns and deputy secretary of defence Ashton Carter that "India remains a priority partner in Asia". In July, an India-US CEOs Forum in Washington DC will also see a number of Indian ministers visiting, including Anand Sharma (commerce and industry), Veerappa Moily (petroelum) and Kapil Sibal (law).
But there remain concerns in Delhi about the political commitment of the Obama administration to the relationship with India. Nothing symbolises this more than the division within the administration's ranks on offering support for India's APEC membership. One faction in the US government believes India is a "natural" member and only our size and clout can balance China's overweening muscle and influence across both the Asia and the Pacific. This faction notes the US is negotiating an ambitious Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) pact with Japan and several other Asian countries and bringing India into APEC will allow it to also become a member of the TPP.
"This will bind India much closer to the US and help it to engage in both bilateral and multi-lateral negotiations, including in the stalled Doha Round. Right now, India is sitting on the fence and is positively combative in several Doha issues, such as agriculture," a US official said from Washington, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
According to this school of thought in the US government, India's presence in the APEC will be far more significant than a future membership of an expanded UN Security Council, with none knowing when or whether this would happen. Notably, Kerry on the eve of his visit to India, reiterated US support for India's UNSC membership.
But Michael Froman, until recently the deputy national security advisor in the White House and now confirmed as America's new USTR, is now said to be not in favour of India joining APEC, supposedly out of concern for not upsetting the balance of power with China. Froman will be the most influential economic affairs advisor to Obama and responsible for concluding the TPP trade negotiations, as well as those with the European Union, called the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment partnership pact.
Indian analysts say the APEC summit to be held in Indonesia in October could be the perfect place for announcing India's membership. At the same time, India and the US could revive their partnership and understanding about a post-US withdrawal from Afghanistan by expanding India's economic and security partnerships with the Afghan government.
