 "A man rides his bicycle during a foggy morning in Srinagar")
Winter across the country is expected to be warmer than a year before.
Meteorologists say the 2015-16 winter might have less of intensely cold days than in 2014-15, with little chance of subsequently strong cold waves hitting the northern parts.
This could affect the final production of rabi crops. Any sudden and sharp increase in temperature in the northern plains might impact the output of wheat and mustard.
Day temperatures have started rising in several parts of the country, and is more than in 2014 in the northern and central parts.
On Wednesday, the maximum and minimum temperature in Delhi was 24 and four degrees Celsius, two to three degrees more than in the same period last year. In the hill station of Shimla, the maximum and minimum were one to two degrees Celsius more than 2014. In Amritsar, the maximum temperature on Wednesday was 23 degrees and the minimum was three degrees, both slightly more than last year.
“Winter over most of northern India will be less severe this year as compared to 2014,” D S Pai, director of Long Range Forecast in the India Meteorological Department (IMD) told Business Standard.
Earlier this month, the South Asia Climate Outlook Forum (SASCOF) said from December to February, normal to above normal temperatures were likely to prevail over much of South Asia. Precipitation was expected to remain below normal.
Near-absence of winter rain over north India is because of less intense western disturbances.
“There has been fewer number of days of heavy snowfall till now this winter, which will continue in the rest of season. Also, the gap between the western disturbance days has been less than five-six, which is stopping icy winds blowing from the Himalayan region toward the plains,” said Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist at private weather forecasting agency Skymet.
He said all the models studied by them showed the current warm weather seemed likely to remain so till January 10, after which temperatures start rising in any case.
“In the past three-four days, temperatures have risen due to strong flow of anti-cyclone winds, which has also deprived northern and central India of fog. The western disturbance has also come in quick succession and, thereafter, they are traveling in the upper crust, which is why maximum temperatures are around 20 degrees Celsius in the plains,” Palawat said.
