A rise in surface temperature over the tropical Pacific Ocean in the past 10-15 days has divided weathermen, with some seeing it as the first sign of the dreaded El Niño. Others are discounting the phenomenon.
However, they said it was too early to predict an impact on the southwest monsoon and a final picture would emerge in May.
El Niño has had an overbearing effect on Indian rainfall with four in five El Niño years seeing below-normal precipitation and three in five being outright drought years.
Skymet in its latest weather update said international weather models had started showing