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IMD’s second half forecast said the monsoon in northwest India could be only 76 per cent of the the long period average (LPA), which borders on drought. How bad is the situation?
A very large part of northwest India is Rajasthan, also rain-dependent. Here, the southwest monsoon has been rather comfortable. The major deficit is in Punjab and Haryana but these have good irrigation facilities. Also, Jammu and Kashmir, including Leh and Ladakh, also falls in this region but not much agricultural crop is grown here. So, overall, I can say with certainty that the situation at a micro level in northwest India does not look alarming, as of now.
Even so, there could be pockets of distress. The yield of which crops could take a hit due to insufficient rain?
My assessment is yields of coarse cereals like bajra, jowar, etc, and pulses could drop due to less than normal rain.
Will (the) El Niño (weather effect) have any impact on the rest of the southwest monsoon?
No, our assessment shows that El Niño will not have any impact on the Indian monsoon. Whatever impact it might have will be only after the monsoon is over.
In your forecast almost all the rainfall in almost the major regions of the country is expected to remain below-normal this year. Will you still say that the overall situation is 'satisfactory?
Given the late onset of southwest monsoon and its sluggish progress in the first 45 days, I feel the overall situation is satisfactory. We were at a deficit of 4% after the first 45 days of the season, which has now narrowed down to 18 per cent, which means surely there has been an improvement. Also, the fact that it has been raining since middle of July is also heartening. But, still there are areas of concern.
At the end of the first half of 2014 southwest monsoon season, where all according to you are the areas of concern?
I feel the concern still remain over the rainfed areas of Marathwada, Telengana, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Vidharbha.
