India, the world's second biggest wheat producer, is likely take a conservative approach on allowing wheat exports given continued concerns on high food prices, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) report said.
India has banned export of wheat since 2007. However, the prospects of a record wheat harvest at 84.2 million tonne in the 2011-12 crop year (July-June) has prompted speculation that the government may allow exports, it said.
Pegging India's wheat export at 2 million tonne for this year, USDA said, "A record wheat harvest, abundant government stocks and favourable international prices may put India back into the wheat export market after a hiatus of four years".
But the government is likely to take a conservative approach on permitting wheat exports due to concerns of food inflation, which was 9.5% in March, it said. Food Inflation was 8.53% for week ended April 23.
With Indian market prices for wheat ranging between Rs 11,000-14,000 per tonne, the country could emerge as a net wheat exporter in 2011, largely by private trade, due to higher prices in the global market, the USDA report said.
At present, Food Ministry and Agriculture Ministry are holding different views on wheat exports. The former is against lifting the ban on wheat exports while the later is for overseas sale to help benefit farmers economically.
According to USDA, the Indian government may delay its decision on wheat exports during the procurement period that runs from April through June, it said.
"In the event that the government announces an export quota for wheat, it is likely to do so only after ensuring sufficient domestic supplies." the report noted.
The USDA further observed that the Indian government's position on wheat exports is further complicated due to the significantly higher food grain requirement for the proposed National Food Security Act.
With the government unlikely to take a decision on allowing wheat exports in the immediate future, the government wheat stocks could be exposed to the 2011 monsoon rains, raising the prospects of damage to the stocks, it said.
Government-held wheat stocks as of April 1 are estimated at 15.4 million tonne, slightly lower than a year ago but more than double the government’s buffer stock requirement for the period.
The higher procurement price of Rs 11,700 ($260) per tonne may push the government procurement higher than the targeted level to 27 million tonne.
Expected record procurement of the 2011-12 harvest will boost government stocks to 37.2 million tonne on July 1, 2011 against 33.6 million tonne during the same period a year ago it said.
