Pramod Kumar Aggarwal is a scientist who likes to keep in the background. Although he has led the ICAR’s (Indian Council of Agricultural Research) national network project to assess the vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate change, he has kept a low profile. That project brought together 15 institutes from 2004-2009, the first of its kind in the developing world. Aggarwal, who is ICAR National Professor at the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), New Delhi, has now been awarded the prestigious Ernesto Illy Trieste Science Prize by the Academy of Sciences for the Developing World (TWAS), Italy,(he shares the prize with a Brazilian scientist) for developing a broad range of innovative strategies to cope with the impact of global warming. In an interview to Latha Jishnu, he explains what lies ahead. Excerpts:
What are the major findings of this study?
Productivity of most crops will decrease only marginally by 2020, but by the turn of the century when the rise in temperature is likely to be 1.8-4 degrees Centigrade, we could see crop production losses of 10-40 per cent, despite the beneficial effects of carbon dioxide (CO2 ).
Can you give a specific example?
Studies carried out by IARI show we could lose 4-5 million tonnes of wheat with every degree Centigrade rise. This will reduce yields of wheat soyabean, mustard and groundnut by 3-7 percent. However, it would be location-specific. There would be less loss in potato, mustard and vegetables in northwest India, due to reduced frost damage. At the same time, there could be improvements in yields of chickpea, rabi season maize, sorghum and millets.
Apart from these crops, is there any other impact on our food availability?
There will be a major impact on dairy production, due to animal distress on account of rising temperatures. We foresee a loss of 1.6 million tonnes of milk by 2020 and of more than 15 million tonnes by 2050. The interesting part is that crossbred cows and buffaloes will be affected more than our indigenous cattle. There will also be significant consequences on livestock reproduction.
Can anything be done to mitigate these effects?
In the short-term, simple strategies like changing the planting date and using different seeds could help. But all this is simple in theory; implementing it can be very difficult, because there are too many ifs in this calculation. Farmers try to maximise profits of a system, so it would be difficult in the north, where farmers grow both rice and wheat, to get them to change the date of planting. Even to realise the short-term benefits of higher Co2 assumes that our agriculture is efficient and that our plants are well cared for. This is not the case in India.
What is the crux of the issue?
Climate change has to be seen from two perspectives. One, mean changes in temperature and rainfall and, two, variability in weather, particularly the unpredictable short-term weather extremes. Scientists have been able to respond effectively to the first, with new tools of production. What is worrying is the second issue, which has extremely serious implications for our food security. It requires a different set of strategies and top-notch management.
Such as?
We should be intensifying food production systems, improve land and water management, and invest in research to enhance India’s adaptive capacity. However, the most important component is training our farmers and supporting them financially. We expect too much from our farmers – from food, feedstock and medicines to clean air. Now we’re asking them to conserve carbon, use less water and less energy. If we want farmers to do all this, they should be compensated for these ecosystem services, such as clean air. Society must put a value on this and price it. Why shouldn’t we all pay for this service?
Does some of the answer lie in our traditional systems of management, such as water harvesting?
Yes, of course. Community seed banks for seed and fodder are critical. The trouble with us is that we say things that sound good but do little to implement. But we also need the best modern technology to protect agriculture and provide credit and incentives to farmers for transition to adaptive technologies. Also, communities need to come together to look for solutions. There are already some good examples in Andhra Pradesh, for example.
What are your other key recommendations?
In the short-term, that is the next 15 years, we need to intensify food production. There is a lot of scope for improving the yield. Focus on rainfed areas. Agriculture in this area needs more inputs, but since the risks are high, farmers are unlikely to do this without support from the government. Crop insurance is critical.
What about the long-term strategy to cope with climate change?
Adaptation strategies are the best way to minimise the negative impact. For this, we need greater research and a policy that supports it with funds. The costs of adaptation are not very well understood but are very likely to be high. But, then, the cost of inaction can be even higher. Remember that a crop variety takes 10 to 20 years to develop. We need to act now.
