A year before MP elections, Cong, BJP fear Maya power

A stormy meeting of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on the Shivpuri byelection did not augur well for the party's chances in the next Assembly elections. But it bodes well for the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP).

While on the one hand, BSP chief Mayawati took a calculative step by not contesting the by-election, on the other hand, the BJP fielded a Congress candidate, attracting the ire of thousands of workers.

When the BJP government in the state is struggling to complete its full-term despite a comfortable majority and the Congress is yet to find its starting point, the BSP has started chalking out plans for the next elections.

If a party source is to be believed, a meeting of the party on May 17 gave "do-it-yourself" tips for the workers and prepared a blueprint to electrify them by constituting booth committees at the village level. The aim? Replicating the "UP model" to strengthen the organisation.

Although Mayawati has not spelt out any strategy for the state so far, a cursory glance at data reveals the party has retained its vote-share for the last 15 years -- from a minimum of 6 per cent to a maximum of 39 per cent (in Chambal and Vindhya regions). Its voteshare in the state has been around 7 per cent.

Political observers believe Mayawati will now try to cultivate upper castes from the economically weaker sections, particularly Chambal region's Brahmins, who are feeling ignored.

"The BJP reached its peak by winning 172 seats in the last elections while the Congress has no leader to resuscitate it. The Uma factor has petered out since her party is functioning like team B of the BJP. A high turnout will definitely favour Maya's camp in next Assembly elections," Girijashankar, a well-known political observer, told Business Standard.

"If the BSP corners 40-60 seats, the political scene in the state will change. Mayawati has ample time to arrange the matrix in MP," he said.

Mayawati has already made it clear that her party will go solo in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi, and Chhattisgarh. Her party had fought the 1998 Assembly elections on its own and helped Digvijay Singh retain power for the second term.

The party had contested only half the seats. This, however, will not be the case in the coming elections. The BSP is expected to cut into the OBC votes and economically weaker upper caste votes. Both these votes traditionally go to the Bhartiya Janshakti Party or the Congress.

Further, the BSP has a strong presence in Rewa-Satna, Bhind Morena, Malwa and Vindhya regions. In the next elections, it may spoil the chances of both the Congress and the BJP, though it may not win any significant number of seats.

The main difference between 1998 and 2008 elections will be that the BSP may gain strength and secure more seats. Since 1990, the BSP has given a tough challenge to the BJP and the Congress in the Chambal and Vindhya regions, although it secured only 11 seats in 1993 and 1998 elections.

But "natural benefit" of any anti-incumbency wave will now go the BSP. The issues of infighting in the BJP, forceful land acquisition for industry, poor law and order, and lack of jobs for the locals bode ill for the ruling party.

Moreover, unlike Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh has no Dalit votes. It has OBC votes. The Congress has had a bitter experience of launching a dalit agenda. Political observers dismiss speculation in a section of the media that there will be a spillover effect of Maya's UP victory in the border areas of Madhya Pradesh which are dominated by Dalits.

"Mayawati took a wise step by not fielding her candidate in Shivpuri, where her party has a strong presence. It is a clear indication that she is not in a hurry and will show her true colours at the right time," said Girijashankar.