Analysts revise Q2 GDP projections, are divided on sharpness on contraction

As Q2 will be the second quarter of economic contraction, India in all probability has entered a technical recession for the first time since quarterly GDP data began being compiled

Rating agencies and economists are unanimous in predicting a fall in India’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the second quarter (Q2) even as they differ on the rate of contraction, with the highest decline pegged at 12.7 per cent and lowest at 8.5 per cent.

Rating agency ICRA on Thursday lowered its projection for contraction in the economy to 9.5 per cent for Q2 of the current financial year (Q2FY21) from its earlier forecast of an 11-12.5 per cent fall. SBI Research pegged the contraction at 10.7 per cent. 

The economy declined by an unprecedented 23.9 per cent in Q1 as the