The price of a barrel of crude could double if the unrest in the Arab world deteriorates, oil trader turned British international development minister Alan Duncan warned today.
Duncan, who has 30 years' business experience in the Gulf, told The Times newspaper that the price of a barrel of crude could top $200 (140 euros), well above the record high of $147 reached in July 2008.
If extremists used the instability in the Arab world to bomb oil tankers, pipelines or Saudi reserves, prices could even hit $250 a barrel, Duncan said.
The Times said analysts fear such highs could trigger another recession in Britain.
"I've been saying in government for two months... $200 is on the cards if this goes wrong, if anyone is reckless and foments unrest. All I'm predicting is danger," said Duncan.
"It could be very serious. If crude oil doubles, you're going to have a very serious spike (in petrol prices). Try living without it for a week."
The British government is under pressure over the price at the pumps, with 63% of the cost going to the exchequer.
If the worst happened, current prices of £1.30 ($2.10, 1.50 euros) a litre at the pump "could look like a luxury", Duncan said, warning of £4 a litre.
