Assam BJP's tie-up plan fails, relief for Congress

The BJP's announcement that it has failed to reach an electoral understanding with the Prafulla Kumar Mahanta-led Asom Gana Parishad (AGP-P) will be music to the ears of the Congress. The party hopes a divided opposition will prevent consolidation of anti-Congress, anti-migrant vote bank.

At the centre of alliances in the state is the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). NCP leader Purno Sangma has inked a deal with the AGP and the CPI (M). It has also got into an alliance with a host of minority parties under the umbrella of the United Democratic Front (UDF).

For the BJP, this means more parties fighting for anti-Congress votes. The party has announced candidates for 60 out of 65 seats which will go to polls in the first phase. The second list of 61 names will be announced on March 17.

According to top sources in the party, talks with the AGP-P broke down after the BJP demanded more seats than Mahanta was prepared to concede.

"The party has been preparing for this election since mid-2005. The scrapping of the Illegal Migrants (Determination by Tribunal) Act and response to protests against the Centre's decision to get the Act in through the back door, encouraged the party to hope for a measure of success in the state," said a top source.

The Congress, on its part, has always maintained that its primary vote bank in the state is the Muslim migrant, the tea garden worker and migrants from West Bengal and Bangladesh. The AGP appeals to the opposite camp, that of natives, who feel outnumbered in their own state.

A year or even six months ago, the fall of the Tarun Gogoi government had seemed imminent but with divisions in the anti-Congress vote bank, he looks much stronger now.

"These triangular and four-cornered fights have given a definite advantage to the Congress," said a top BJP source.