Barclays pegs India's FY22 GDP growth at 7.7% in bear-case scenario

Our pessimistic tail-risk scenario assumes another wave of infections and a two-month period of restrictions that disrupt economic activity, Barclays said

Barclays has pegged India’s economic growth for fiscal 2021-22 (FY22) – as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) – at 7.7 per cent in the bear-case scenario, if the country is hit by the third wave of the Covid pandemic going ahead. The economic cost, it believes, could rise by at least a further $42.6 billion, assuming another round of similar stringent lockdowns are imposed across the country for eight weeks later this year.

After factoring in recent developments, Barclays has pegged the economic cost of the latest shutdowns at $8 billion per week in May, up from $5.3 billion per