In 93, of the 21 seats in Bundelkhand, the BJP was able to win as many as 9 with the BSP-SP combine getting 8. However the split in the SP and the BSP vote will not ensure a smooth sail for the BJP.
There are two major reasons for this. Firstly, the upper castes, at least in the initial days of the campaign, have not shown any staunch support for the saffron party as they did last time. On one pretext or the other, they have deserted the party. Both in Orai in Mahoba and in Banda, the brahmins, regarded till now as staunch supporters of the party, have chosen to side with their caste brethren of some other party. This has jeopardised the BJP's chances in all the three seats which the party won in the difficult elections of 93. Similarly, there are two very important BJP rebels in Kerbi and in Naraini in Banda district. They pose a hazard to the official BJP candidates. The saffron party has not been able to get its act together.
On the other hand, the BSP's support base has by and large stayed with it. True, there is an important rebel at least in one constituency and the party in general has suffered from massive desertions, losing its long standing leaders of the area. But even then with the assured and captive support, and with marginal help of the Congress it can get upto 6 seats against seven in 93, though there may be some lack of support due to the split with the SP.
The Congress is set to win two seats, and could increase its tally to three. Both the Congress and the BSP need the support of each other to win these seats. But if the tally goes up, that will be due to the BSP.
The UF is likely to win its three seats which the SP and the JD had won in 93. The UF is likely to get at least three seats, with the likelihood of its tally going up one ffered at her hands. If they go against the SP then the party will be out of contention.
