BJP in a bind over Kalyan Singh

Vajpayee likely to take decision in a week

Buoyed by the post-Hyderabad exuberance of the "feel-good" factor the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) brass seems set to embark on some radical political surgery in its Uttar Pradesh unit.

Although some serious political decisions on UP were to have been taken on January 15, the meeting has been deferred in view of the Cabinet meeting.

Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee will decide whether to invite Kalyan Singh back to the BJP, or to let him continue in the Mulayam Singh Yadav government as a "sleeper" until after the Lok Sabha elections.

Some leaders in the BJP believe Kalyan Singh who will help propel the Samajwadi Party-led front towards the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) after the general elections and could represent the edge the NDA might need if the elections yield a hung Lok Sabha.

The Prime Minister 's personal preference is no secret. Just a few weeks ago, during his visit to Lucknow where he met Kalyan Singh for the first time since the latter's bitter exit from the BJP, the Prime Minister commented that the winds of change were sweeping India and it was only appropriate that change should begin from Lucknow.

This was a way of indicating to Kalyan Singh that his re-entry would not be a problem. Some ground work had already been done by Deputy Prime Minister LK Advani and the Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) leaders paving the way for the rapprochement.

What the party did not anticipate was the depth of hostility this move would evoke. Top leaders who are not in favour of Kalyan Singh's re-entry include Union Human Resources Development Minister Murli Manohar Joshi (who believes the move was crafted by Advani to strengthen his own position in the party), state BJP chief Vinay Katiyar (who anticipates he may be displaced and did not attend the BJP national executive on the pretext that he had some religious programmes in the memory of his mother to carry out), Rajnath Singh and Kalraj Mishra, who believe that if destabilised, Mulayam Singh Yadav could upset the BJP-led NDA's plans of forming the next government at the Centre.

As things stand now, several BJP leaders feel that if Kalyan Singh is not brought back to the party, the BJP's tally might dip to 10 seats in the Lok Sabha from the current 26.

"We have no agitation plan against the Samajwadi Party for fear of offending them. We are not supporting them openly either. The people are opposed to the Samajwadi Party. The Congress is supporting them in the Assembly but opposing them among the people. So it is possible that we might reach the level of the Congress in the coming Lok Sabha and the Congress might replace us," said a senior BJP leader from Uttar Pradesh and a Union minister.

The BJP has another option: risk angering Mulayam Singh Yadav by breaking away Kalyan Singh and topple the UP government with a view to holding simultaneous elections for the Assembly and the Lok Sabha.

This plan, however, is unlikely to find favour with the Prime Minister who is not in favour of toppling any government anywhere.

However, Mulayam Singh Yadav has deftly moved to pre-empt the BJP's attempt to take advantage of Kalyan Singh's induction by positioning himself as the only anti-Mayawati force.

In swift administrative move, Yadav had scrapped Mayawati's decision of all new districts and divisions to win over a significant chunk of upper castes.

The political implication of the move is that Kalyan Singh even inducted in the BJP would not be able to win over upper castes by taking strident anti-Mayawati postures.

In the emerging scenario, leaders like Swami Chinmayanand say the BJP will run the risk of being permanently in a subordinate position to an ally in an important state like Uttar Pradesh. The Prime Minister might decide the matter within this week.