The adjournement of the Rajasthan legislative Assembly till March 6 is unlikely to end the uncertainty over the BJP governments fate. It could continue when the Assembly meets again, in view of the Congress resolve to oppose the Shekhawat government tooth and nail.
The state BJP units leaders, who are divided and dissatisfied with Chief Minister Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, managed a temporary truce in order to save the government. But they may not remain united for long if Shekhawat remains their leader.
This fear perhaps influenced the partys decision to rush through the motion of thanks on the Governors address and to get it passed by a quick vote yesterday.
They calculated that the Opposition Congress may not seek a division on the motion of thanks for fear of losing the moral ground to criticise the government in case the motion was passed.
Indeed, the Congress limited itself to the technical question of whether the Governors address had been delivered, thus seeking to undermine the moral authority of the BJP to conduct the Assemblys proceedings.
The Congresss aim has been to paralyse the government and adminstration in order to increase the disenchantment of the people with the BJP government rather than to actually bring it down.
Congress leaders like state president Ashok Gehlot and legislature party chief Paras Ram Maderna deliberately distanced themselves from the dissident MLAs effort to turn the government into a minority, since they did not wish to be identified as opportunists who attacked Shekhawat when he was ill.
That could generate a sympathy wave in favour of Shekhawat, who has been fast losing political ground in the state because of heightened factionalism in the BJP ranks. The timing of the BJP dissidents was wrong. It is immoral to raise a banner of revolt against a leader when he is ill. There should be humanity in politics, said Gehlot.
However, he added that the Congress would use every democratic method to dislodge the government, which he described as anti-people: The Shekhawat government has been exposed on the issue of corruption, nepotism and solving basic problems of electricity and irrigation being faced by the people of Rajasthan.
The Congress wants to set its house in order before making a concerted bid for power in the state. It may be recalled that the Congress demand has been imposition of Presidents rule on the state rather than a bid to replace Shekhawat.
The strategy makes sense, for the Congress state unit leaders are divided for the moment. Maderna, Gehlot and Congress general secretary from Rajasthan Nawal Kishore Sharma have often been reported to be working at cross-purposes.
At a recent party meeting, Congress MLA Jagdeep Dhanker went to the extent of accusing Maderna of not playing his role as the Opposition leader and of being soft with Shekhawat.
The Congress has failed for some time to project a united leadership in the state. It failure to do well in the 1993 state assembly elections is also attributed to division among the Congress leaders, who worked overtime to deny party tickets to good candidates simply because they belonged to rival groups.
This is attested by the fact that, of the 21 independent candidates who were elected, about 16 had contested as independents after being denied Congress tickets.
As for the BJP, the party appears to have become a one-man party in the state, so much so that the BJP is often described in political circles as the Bhairon Singh Shekhawat Party (BSP). One BJP leader said that, even if Shekhawat wanted to resign, there was no leader who would be accepted unanimously by the party.
Senior BJP leaders in the state are concerned about what would happen to the BJP after Shekhawat. Even without the revolt, Shekhawat may not be able to devote adequate time and energy to rejuvenate the partys organisational problems after his recent heart surgery. Shekhawats efforts to prop up his son-in-law Narpat Singh Rajvir has already raised many eyebrows in the state.
The Rashtriya Swayamsewak Sangh (RSS) has backed Shekhawats opponents among BJP leaders, such as education minister Lalit Kishore Charturvedi, home minister Hari Shankar Bhabra and Rajya Sabha member Satish Agarwal. But they have failed more than once because the MLAs personal loyalty to Shekhawat is greater than their loyalty to the party.
A senior BJP leader said that Shekhawat commands the personal loyalty of at least 40 MLAs, who would leave the BJP if he wanted them to. Shekhawat is averse to the Rashtriya Swayam Sewak (RSS) leaders in the state and it is said he may like to extend indirect support to the Congress to form the government rather than allow any RSS leader to become Chief Minister, he said.
The RSS lobby, which has not been happy with Shekhawats style of functioning, is reported to have backed the recent revolt against him. This lobby wanted both Shekhawat and state unit president Ram Das Agarwal to go.
The problem for the RSS and for the BJPs state unit is that they are caught in a cleft stick: Retaining Shekhawat could compromise the partys future, but removing him could severely damage the party immediately. After the setbacks in Gujarat and elsewhere, they cannot afford to take bold decisions.
