Political circles here hold that under Article 175 (2), the Governor can send a message to the assembly, setting its agenda and then asking it to choose a leader. This method was resorted to when Mayawati was to seek a vote of confidence in June 1996.
At least one judge has intervened in the court debate, reflecting the same view. This has spurred the belief that this may indeed happen.
But, the Janata Dal (JD) and the Communist Party of India (CPI) have rejected it as impractical. Same is the case with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which feels that once the assembly is convened then the parties will issue a whip and any cross-voting will amount to a defection.
Therefore, the support, which could have been garnered by any party, will not be forthcoming as the members wanting to side with a party other than his own will not cross-vote for fear of inviting action under the anti-defection law.
However, other United Front (UF) leaders said that this move has been talked about in the front and has the nod of the party high-ups.
According to one leader, the outcome will depend on the voting method. If there is voting of all the aspirants together, then it will lead to one result and if there is separate voting for all the candidates separately and the whole Vidhan Sabha takes part, then the result may be different.
On the contrary, the BJP is planning to ask its supporters to send their letters to the Governor directly, affirming support to the party. If they agree then these letters sent separately by the supporting MLAs will ensure that the Governor is compelled to take cognisance. The move for the Governor to convene the assembly under Article 175 (2) is meant to stall this BJP move.
The second option which the BJP is exploring is that of alliance with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). This is being continuously explored.
There also appears another move which is for large number of MLAs to group together and side with the BJP. A congress MLA said that there is an upper caste mobilisation in favour of the BJP and there could be a large number of them who may choose to side with that party. He did not disclose the details, but did appear to mean business. If this move succeeds then in the next 10 days the political situation could change radically.
Meanwhile, the move by the UF leaders to exert pressure on Mulayam Singh Yadav has not succeeded.
Surjeet was chosen for this purpose. But Mulayam has rebuffed him also. But the pressure is on and the discussions are continuing with Kanshi Ram to choose somebody else in place of either Mulayam Singh or Mayawati. But these have not made headway. Thus at the moment the chances look bleak for the formation of the UF government it alliance with the BSP and the Congress.
The Governor using art 175 (2) has emerged as the most likely option. Otherwise the BJP remains a front runner, working on three options.
