Sick of Mayawati, the BJP in Uttar Pradesh is making feverish preparations to attain a majority on its own in the Vidhan Sabha.
The party thinktank, currently meeting in Delhi with all its top UP and central leaders, is taking stock of the situation.
BJP insiders point out that sparring between the alliance partners have started much earlier then expected. The parties dont see eye to eye on issues like transfers and postings and the creation of new districts named, incidentally, after those leaders who have furthered the cause of dalits, like Sakujimaharaj or Gautam Budha and his mother Mahamaya. The carving out of new districts was informally agreed upon between the two alliance partners, although the formal ratification of the move by the cabinet was done later.
Mayawatis personality is such that she is not capable of running a coalition government. She is in the habit of taking decisions on her own, rather then through a process of discussion, which is what a coalition demands.
But what has rattled the BJP most is the lack of action in booking Mulayam Singh on the various acts of omission which he had committed during his tenure as the Chief Minister. There has been no action against even Mulayams brother, Shivpal Singh, MLA, in whose house live bombs were found recently. It is suspected that they were brought by Shivpal Singh himself.
The BJPs suspicion that the BSP is keeping its options open has become strengthened after repeated declarations by both Kanshi Ram and Mayawati, that for the sake of dalits, they can always change their stand and take any position. They further suspect that some wheeling-dealing has taken place between the Samajwadi supremo and the BSP brass to ensure that the cases against former are not pursued. Once Mayawatis six-month term is over, there is a possibility that the BSP may get support from a combination of the UF and the Congress to keep the BJP out of power.
If this happens, then the BJPs neatly laid out plans of contesting the Lok Sabha elections with the BSP will not fructify. The alliance is important only because it helps the BJP to garner strength for the battle for Delhi. A BJP-BSP combination will bring the BJP very close to victory in the Lok Sabha elections.
But the BSP has not taken a consistent stand on an alliance with the BJP for the Lok Sabha elections. In Farrukhabad in UP, no BSP candidate is contesting for the by elections, caused by the killing of Brahmadutt Dwivedi. But, at the same time, in East Delhi Lok Sabha seat, the BSP is in contest against the BJP. The signals are confusing and not at all reassuring for the saffron party.
Therefore, to salvage its plans, the BJP has to quickly ensure sufficient defections from the Congress, the BKKP and the JD to cross the magic figure of 213, which will give them a majority on their own strength. This they have to achieve in the next fortnight, since there is not much time to lose.
If this happens the party will be in the drivers seat and Mayawati will continue as Chief Minister, but only as a puppet one. This may give the BJP an opportunity to break the BSP, since Mayawati will not like to move out of the Chief Ministers seat.
But there is still some distance to be covered. If the party succeeds in its plan, the political scenario of UP will change in the next fortnight.
