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The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has reduced its cotton crop forecast by 1.50 lakh bales in its July estimate for 2020-21, beginning October, to 354.50 lakh bales compared to the previous month, following lower output exceptions in Gujarat and Telangana.
The total cotton production in 2019-20 (October 2019-September 2020) had stood at 360 lakh bales, CAI said in a statement on Friday.
The CAI has maintained its cotton crop estimate for the Northern Zone at the same level as in its previous month's estimate of 65.50 lakh bales. While, for the Central Zone, it reduced by 0.50 lakh bales to 193.50 lakh bales, from 194 lakh bales estimated during the last month.
CAI also said there is a reduction of 2.50 lakh bales in the crop estimate for Gujarat; while for Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, it has been increased by 1.50 lakh bales and 0.50 lakh bales, respectively, compared to the estimates of these states made in the previous month.
The cotton crop estimate for the Southern Zone has been reduced by one lakh bales to 90.50 lakh bales as compared with the previous estimate of 91.50 lakh bales made during the last month, according to the CAI data.
For Telangana, cotton production is estimated lower by 1 lakh bales; whereas estimates for Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu have been maintained at the same levels as estimated previously, it said adding that there is no change in the cotton crop estimate for Odisha.
Meanwhile, CAI estimated the total cotton supply during October 2020-July 2021 at 482.61 lakh bales, which included the arrivals of 348.61 lakh bales, imports of 9 lakh bales up to July 31, 2021, and the opening stock at the beginning of the season on October 1, 2020, at 125 lakh bales.
Further, the CAI has estimated cotton consumption during October 2020-July 2021 at 275 lakh bales, while the export shipment of cotton up to July 31, 2021, is estimated at 70 lakh bales.
The stock at the end of July is estimated by the CAI at 137.61 lakh bales, including 80 lakh bales with textile mills and the remaining 57.61 lakh bales with the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), Maharashtra Federation, and others (MNCs, traders, ginners, etc).
CAI estimated the total cotton supply till the end of the cotton season (up to September 30) at 489.50 lakh bales, consisting of the opening stock of 125 lakh bales at the beginning of the season, cotton crop for 2020-21 at 354.50 lakh bales and imports estimated by at 10 lakh bales. The imports are lower by 5.50 lakh bales from the previous year's import of 15.50 lakh bales.
Domestic consumption for the crop year 2020-21 is estimated higher by 5 lakh bales to 330 lakh bales considering the brisk demand for cotton yarn despite disruptions caused by lockdown to arrest spread of the second wave of COVID-19, CAI noted.
CAI has also increased the exports estimate for the season from its previous estimate of 72 lakh bales to 77 lakh bales.
The carryover stock at the end of the season is now estimated at 82.50 lakh bales, CAI added.
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