Caste conflict remains the biggest threat

POLLBOUND STATES: RAJASTHAN

Parallels between the two BJP chief ministers "" Vasundhara Raje of Rajasthan and Narendra Modi of Gujarat "" are tempting.

Both have had their problems with the Sangh Parivar over their seemingly autocratic style of functioning; both have alienated a major caste group in the state and have lived to tell the tale.

During her tenure, Raje managed to get Rajasthan out of the grouping commonly referred to as Bimaru, or the least developed states, just as Modi batted strongly on the development wicket.

There, however, the similarity ends. The roots of differences lie in the 2003 Assembly polls. When Vasundhara Raje was named the BJP's chief ministerial candidate, she faced opposition as an imposition by the Centre on the state unit.

Powerful BJP general secretary, the late Pramod Mahajan, played a pivotal role in calming dissidents, organising Raje's Parivartan Yatra across the state and strategising over the campaign, giving the all-powerful Meena tribal group a large number of tickets.

The then prime minister, Atal Behari Vajpayee, announced that Jats, a powerful caste group in north Rajasthan would be given OBC status, thus wooing them to the BJP. Her victory had a strong element of team work, her charisma heavily subsidised by central support.

During her tenure, Raje has tried to strike out on her own and to her credit, has managed to drag Rajasthan out of the backward states club. She has also fished Rajasthan out of fiscal debt through innovative fund-raising without raising taxes.

The roads network, under the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana in the state, is among the best in the country according to the rural development ministry. In sectors such as cement and secondary minerals, the state has seen some investment.

Whether this will be enough to see her through another election is a moot question. Has she, like Modi, become a brand for Rajasthan. The biggest problem facing Raje, apart from dissidence in her own party is the unraveling of the caste combination that saw her into office.

The demand by the Gujjars to be included in the Scheduled Tribe list presented a Hobson's choice to Raje "" either appease them and lose the sizeable Meena vote bank in the state or go with the Meenas and lose the Gujjars.

The Meenas and Gujjars have been historical rivals.The Congress on its part is doing everything it can to shore up its traditional vote bank, including the Jat vote which had been captured by the BJP in 2003.

They have a Brahmin state unit president in C P Joshi, a Dalit acting president in Parushuram Mordia and a Jat legislative party leader in Hema Ram Choudhary.

The BJP has 22 Meena MLAs, and little else in form of a strong caste group. Gujjars affect at least 25 assembly seats out of a total strength of 200 in the state Assembly. "The situation is such that either the Gujjars stay with BJP or the Meenas, both cannot be together," said a Rajasthan BJP office-bearer.

In the last elections, the BJP for the first time had got an absolute majority. The previous two times, Bhairon Singh Shekhawat had to take support from the Janata Dal and a few independents.

The 120 seats that the BJP got was made up of support from Jats, Gujjars, Meenas and a sizeable number of government servants and their dependents, who were angry with the then Congress chief minister, Ashok Gehlot, for coming down heavily on state employee union's strike.

This time round, the Jats are not that grateful, the Meenas are ambiguous and the Gujjars openly hostile to Raje. The Brahmins, who form 3-4 per cent of the vote, are upset that Mahesh Sharma, the previous state unit chief, has been replaced by Om Mathur, who does not represent a major caste group.

Modi's victory in Gujarat has shown that a BJP victory owes much to development being married to the Hindutva agenda. Will inspiration strike Raje as well? Rajasthan, unlike Gujarat, does not have a history of communal riots, so the jury is still out.

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RAJE'S INITIATIVES

A pucca road between every four villages. The Raje government has added 12 km of road to Rajasthan everyday

Set up over 116,723 self-help groups for women

Set up 153 industrial training institutes and 26 polytechnics

Wiped out fiscal deficit by rejigging liquor and excise revenue