Caught between macro & economy, market wants comfort of political stability

There is no sure way to predict election results a year ahead of actual election. It will be far better to play contra for political risk in 2019

Election results impact sentiment and market far more than corporate or economic fundamentals. General Election results have larger impact on sentiment and market than state elections. The last three general election years, viz 2004, 2009 and 2014 returns were impacted by election results.  

As a fund manager picks up monthly data to sharpen their annual forecast of company performance, markets factor in available data point to forecast future.  

Karnataka election result is one data point to forecast post-2019 election political set-up. Market will use Karnataka Assembly election results to forecast a trend for 2019 general elections. That said, 12-months is too long