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Global demand for energy is expected to rise 37% from 2013 to 2035, or by an average of 1.4% a year, the outlook suggests.
The outlook projects that demand for oil will increase by around 0.8% every year till 2035. The rising demand comes entirely from the non-OECD countries; oil consumption within the OECD peaked in 2005 and by 2035 is expected to fall to levels not seen since 1986. By 2035 China is likely to have overtaken the US as the largest single consumer of oil globally.
The current weakness in the oil market, which stems from a strong growth in tight oil production in the US, is likely to take several years to work through. In 2014, tight oil production drove US oil output higher by 1.5 million barrels a day, the largest single-year rise in US history. But further out, the growth in tight oil is likely to slow and Middle East production will gain ground once more.
By 2030s US is likely to become self-sufficient in oil, after having imported 60% of its total demand as recently as 2005.
Demand for natural gas will grow fastest amidst the fossil fuels, increasing by 1.9% a year, led by demand from Asia.
Half the increased demand will be met by rising conventional gas production, primarily in Russia and the Middle East, and about a half from shale gas. By 2035, North America, which currently accounts for almost all global shale gas supply, will still produce around three quarters of the total.
Coal had been the fastest growing of the fossil fuels over the past decade, driven by Chinese demand. However over the next 20 years the Outlook instead sees coal as the slowest growing fossil fuel, growing by 0.8% a year, marginally slower than oil.
The change is driven by three factors: moderating and less energy-intensive growth in China; the impact of regulation and policy on the use of coal in both the US and China; and the plentiful supplies of gas helping to squeeze coal out from power generation.
As demand for gas grows, there will be increasing trade across regions and by the early 2020s Asia Pacific will overtake Europe as the largest net gas importing region. The continuing growth of shale gas will also mean that in the next few years North America will switch from being a net importer to net exporter of gas.
Production of LNG will show dramatic growth over the rest of this decade, with supply growing almost 8% a year through the period to 2020. This also means that by 2035 LNG will have overtaken pipelines as the dominant form of traded gas.
Increasing LNG trade will also have other effects on markets. Over time it can be expected to lead to more connected and integrated gas markets and prices across the world. And it is also likely to provide significantly greater diversity in gas supplies to consuming regions such as Europe and China.
Energy self-sufficiency in North America - which is expected to become a net exporter of energy this year - and increasing LNG trade are also over time expected to have fundamental impacts on global energy flows.
Increased oil and gas supplies in the US and lower demand in the US and Europe due to improving energy efficiency and lower growth will combine with continuing strong economic growth in Asia to shift the energy flows increasingly from west to east.
Commenting on the Outlook, Bob Dudley, group chief executive, concluded: ?The energy industry works on strategies and investments with lifespans often measured in decades. This is why an authoritative view of the key trends and movements that will shape our markets over this long term is essential? and is precisely why this Outlook is so valuable.
