China’s imports climbed to a record and exports grew more than expected last month, indicating resilience in the world’s second-biggest economy as the US and European recoveries falter.
Inbound shipments jumped 30.2 per cent from a year earlier to $155.6 billion, the customs bureau said on its website on Saturday. That exceeded the estimates of all 29 economists’ in a Bloomberg News survey. Exports climbed a more-than-expected 24.5 per cent, leaving a trade surplus of $17.76 billion.
Today’s data suggest the world’s biggest consumer of energy and metals is weathering a deepening sovereign debt crisis in Europe and weakening consumer sentiment in the US as the unemployment rate holds at more than nine per cent. Stocks tumbled yesterday on speculation Greece will default and that President Barack Obama will struggle to secure approval from Congress for measures intended to create jobs. “This is better than expected considering the debt crisis and market turbulence,” said Dong Tao, a Hong Kong-based economist with Credit Suisse AG. “It seems that the real economy is doing better than the financial world.”
The data provides further evidence that Premier Wen Jiabao’s campaign to cool inflation without choking off growth is taking effect. Data yesterday showed consumer-price gains eased in August from a three-year high.
Higher Than Expected
The expansion in imports was the highest since January and compared with a median estimate of 21 percent in a Bloomberg survey. The gain in exports was higher than 27 out of 29 estimates in a separate poll. The value of outbound shipments was the second-highest on record, just shy of the $175 billion in July, customs data show.
The trade surplus was lower than every estimate in a Bloomberg survey of 28 economists. The median forecast was for $24.6 billion after a gap of $31.5 billion in July that was the highest in more than two years. The data “suggest the economy is staying on track despite the global slowdown,” said Liu Li-gang, a Hong Kong-based economist with Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. “Accelerating imports indicates domestic demand is maintaining strong momentum and that the risks of a hard landing have decreased significantly.”
China is the world’s biggest exporter and the largest contributor to global growth. Citigroup Inc. estimates that the nation’s expansion will slow to 8.4 percent in the fourth quarter from 9.6 percent in the first half. The bank forecasts the economy will expand 9 percent for the full year, five times the pace of the US and euro area.
Japan's Demand
Imports from Japan rose 16.5 percent to $17.5 billion, the highest in five months, customs data showed, as shipments recovered after the earthquake and tsunami in March. Exports to the nation climbed 30 percent from a year earlier, the most since March.
Purchases from the European Union, China’s biggest trading partner, jumped 31.4 percent to $19.4 billion, the most since May, while exports to the bloc climbed 22.3 percent to $34 billion.
Shipments to the US, the second-largest export destination, climbed 12.5 percent to $30 billion, the biggest jump since April, while imports climbed 16.6 percent to $10 billion. The trade surplus with the U.S. last month narrowed to $20 billion, the first decline in six months. Imports of crude oil rose in August to a three-month high, copper climbed to the highest since January and iron-ore purchases were the largest since March, customs data show.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development this week cut its growth forecasts for the US and Japan, and estimated the German economy will shrink in the fourth quarter, highlighting the risks of a renewed global recession. Four central banks in Asia held off raising interest rates this week as their focus switched to sustaining economic expansion from cooling inflation.
‘With the uncertainties in the global economy and financial markets, we see a rising risk of further slowdowns in both domestic and external demand for China,” Daiwa Capital Markets said.
In an Aug. 23 note. Daiwa cut an estimate for the nation’s export growth next year to 10 percent from a previous forecast of 15 percent.
In a sign that global demand is waning, commerce on the Asia-to-Europe container-shipping route, the world’s second busiest, rose the least since 2009 in the second quarter, according to Container Trade Statistics Ltd., a company based in Woking, England.
JPMorgan Chase & Co. lowered its recommendation on China Merchants Holdings (International) Co., which owns stakes in Chinese ports, to “underweight” from “neutral” on Aug. 30, on the risk that global trade will slow.
