Leading macroeconomic research agency Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) has pegged the gross domestic product growth (GDP) in the second quarter at 8.7 per cent, a tad less than the 8.8 per cent it notched up in Q1.
"We estimate that the real GDP grew by an impressive 8.7 per cent during the July-September 2010 quarter, making it the third consecutive quarter with over 8.5 per cent expansion", CMIE said in its monthly report on the macro economy, released here today.
Despite the past two months of disappointing growth numbers, the agency retains its GDP growth forecast at 9.2 per cent for this fiscal, as it expects the economy to maintain the expansionary steam in the coming months.
The government has forecast the GDP for the current fiscal to grow at 8.5-8.75 per cent, while the International Monetary Fund has pegged growth in calendar year 2010 at a stupendous 9.7 per cent.
Factory output growth declined the most in 16 months to 4.4 per cent in September, reflecting a general slowdown in demand across sectors on the back of the successive monetary tightening by RBI to rein in high inflation.
This is the second massive dip in the IIP numbers, after a stellar 13.76 per cent growth in July, which more than halved to 5.6 per cent in August.
The IIP numbers have been hammered down by the manufacturing sector, which constitutes almost 80 per cent of industrial production. While in September manufacturing grew by a poor 4.5 per cent against a 8.3 per cent in the same month last year, in August it managed just 5.9 per cent growth from 10.6 per cent in August 2009.
In September, four of the 17 industries recorded contraction in output, including chemicals and metals and other core industries, which together managed a paltry 2.5 per cent growth in September, an 18-month low. However, for the first half, IIP growth was at 10.2 per cent from 6.3 per cent a year ago.
