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A demand slump has helped to keep down growth after September 2013 in the country's coal imports, in which we are the world's third largest, behind China and Japan.
These grew 16% to 131 million tonnes between in the first 10 months of this financial year (April-January), as compared to 112 mt in the same period of 2012-13.
A Business Standard analysis of the month-wise data shows imports grew a little over 30% in the first half (April-September) but the growth then slowed, helping ease the country's widening current account deficit but depriving companies of the benefits of depressed global prices.
The 16% rise in imports in the April-January period led to a total foreign exchange outgo of Rs 56,588 crore, a 27% jump against Rs 44,539 crore in the same period of the previous year.
The analysis is based on an average coal price of Rs 4,300 a tonne (5,500 Kcal Indonesian coal from Visakhapatnam port), an 8.9% increase over the average of Rs 3,945 a tonne last year.
Indonesian coal accounts for the bulk of our thermal coal import, of around 110 mt annually. Another 25 mt of coking coal, used for steel making, is imported largely from Australia and South Africa. Overall imports are likely to go up to 150 mt in 2013-14.
The effect of the muted growth in the volume of import and in global prices have kept foreign exchange outgo under check, though these were partially offset by the rupee's depreciation.
"The rupee had touched 65 against the dollar last year. Since then, the dollar to rupee rates have stabilised around 62, still high. January 2014 imports were only 9.2 mt, a 33% decline over the year.
For 2013, imports were just shy of 158 mt, still about 11% higher from the previous year,” said Kalpit Dubey, analyst at commodities research firm OreTeam.
India’s coal production grew at a sluggish 3.3% to 557 mt in 2012-13, with delayed environmental clearances for new mines and the failure of captive mines to raise output. The supply gap had to be filled by a 42% jump in imports, to 145 mt.
Imports have almost doubled from 73 mt in 2009, leading to foreign exchange outgo worth Rs 244,000 crore during the four years.
With the dip in the current financial year, analysts expect India to close the year with imports of around 150 mt, only a 3.4% growth over FY13. Coal is among the top five items in India’s import bill of around $415 billion annually.
