If the two parties, which are contesting the UP elections in alliance, fare well, the Congress might withdraw support to the United Front government at the Centre during the winter and force another election early next year.
When asked about this scenario, a senior Congress functionary, who knows party President PV Narasimha Raos mind, did not confirm or deny that the Congress could withdraw its support to the UF government, but dwelt on the Congresss commitment not to withdraw support unless it departed from Congress policies. He also pointed out that the Congress Working Committee would have to decide about withdrawal.
Rao is clearly chary of scaring his own MPs, who dread the prospect of an early election. His position is undoubtedly too weak today for him to be confident of his partys backing were he to try and pull the rug from under this government. Most Lok Sabha MPs would be averse to facing another election.
He appears to be banking on the contradictions within the 13-party United Front to bring it down. A senior Congress office-bearer also spoke of the inevitability of the Janata Dals government in Karnataka falling sooner than later.
Meanwhile, Rao hopes to strengthen himself within his party by winning another term as Congress president. In fact, one reason his detractors have become more active in the past week is the appointment of RK Dhawan to manage the organisational elections that are to be held in the next few months.
Dissident leaders, who were sure that Rao would easily be defeated in the election for a new Congress president at the culmination of these elections, are now worried that Dhawan will pack loyalists as returning officers at various levels of the election process. He could ensure in the first place that the drive for primary membership now underway brings only Rao-loyalists onto the partys electoral rolls.
Electoral success in UP too could strengthen Raos hands, especially since Kanshi Ram has made it clear that he wants to ally his party with a weak Congress and he considers that Rao remaining at the helm will keep the party weak.
Raos managers could use the results of the last Lok Sabha elections to persuade party members that a Congress-BSP alliance could gain a number of seats more than either did last time in UP, Rajasthan, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh and a few other states.
The BSPs calculation is that it could be the tail that wags the dog if it can get enough seats, perhaps 60-70, to make or break a Congress government as long as that party had less than 200 seats in the next Lok Sabha.
Leaders in both parties hope that, particularly if such groups as Chandrashekhars Samajwadi Janata Party were to be join in, they could do well in Himachal, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, parts of UP, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Orissa, Andhra and the north-east.
There has been speculation in recent months about Raos parleys with such leaders as Bihar Chief Minister Laloo Prasad Yadav. Rao has spoken to some of his visitors recently about the old samikaran' (equation of castes) forming again, or new ones being built to bring his party back to power. Rao also spoke of the centripetal' tendencies that are bringing political leaders who left the Congress over the past few decades back to its fold.
