If the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government wants its own man or woman at the Rashtrapati Bhavan, support of three or four regional parties would be crucial. This is the message the numbers give.
The debacle in the Assembly elections have done little to boost Congress’ strength in the Rajya Sabha. It is the combined strength of the members in the Lok Sabha, Rajya Sabha and the state assemblies that constitute the electoral college for the presidential election to be held in June. President Pratibha Patil retires on July 25. What is worrying the Congress is the non-UPA and non-NDA parties hold the key in the election of the next President.
Currently , the Congress has 30 per cent of the votes. It hopes, it allies — the Rashtriya Lok Dal, the Nationalist Congress Party and the Trinamool Congress (TMC), among others — will add 11 per cent to its kitty. The NDA (National Democratic Alliance) has 35 per cent of the votes. However it is the non-UPA and non-NDA parties that have the lion’s share.
The Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP), Samajwadi Party (SP), the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Telengana Rashtra Samiti, the Asom Gana Parishad and others have 16 per cent, the Left has five per cent and Independents three per cent; adding up to 24 per cent of the votes among them.
Congress sources are aware in such a scenario, wooing the regional satraps — SP and BSP — will matter. This will naturally influence the choice of the candidate. The Congress cannot decide on a person that SP and BSP do not agree to.
"Although parties such as Laloo's RJD and Ram Vilas Paswan's Lok Janashkti Party (LJP) support the UPA from outside, we are not including them in the arithmetic of numbers. They can be extremely difficult to bank on," said a senior Congress insider.
With the 58 vacancies that would arise next month in the Rajya Sabha, the party has to ensure it bags most of them. But as these numbers are dependent on a party’s effective strength (number of MLAs) in the state legislative assemblies, the Congress has a tall task at hand.
Of the 58 new vacancies that will arise by April 2 and 3 in the Rajya Sabha, the Congress is likely to get only 15, provided they form the government in Uttarakhand.
The Congress is also faced with challenges in Karnataka and West Bengal. In the former, it needs the help of the Janata Dal (Secular) while in West Bengal it needs the help of its troublesome ally TMC to secure one seat. The Congress on its own is falling short of the magical 50 MLAs needed to get one Rajya Sabha seat.
Congress president Sonia Gandhi has held talks with state-in-charge of West Bengal, Shakeel Ahmed, to strategise the way forward. She met him on Wednesday, after the post poll stock taking session at the AICC headquarters.
Surprisingly, despite the abysmal results in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress will have one seat unlike last time. It now has 28 MLAs and banking on the nine of the RLD, it can get the magical number of 37 required to get one Rajya Sabha seat.
