During the run-up to seven-phase assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, Congress leaders had claimed the grand old party would emerge victorious under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi. But as polling for the seventh and final phase of assembly elections in the country’s most populous state came to an end on Saturday, they found the hard reality. The party has assessed its performance is “certainly not encouraging”.
Some leaders have started admitting, “There is a change in the pulse of voters. We had envisaged a ground swell for the Congress, but it's apparently not the scenario.”
Rahul Gandhi’s extensive and unprecedented ‘jansampark yatras’ throughout the state had given rise to the initial euphoric feeling among the Congress brass that under his leadership the large segment of ‘youth’ reflected in the unusually high voter turnout ( more than 50 per cent in all phases) could see a swing towards the Congress.
However, as a senior leader said, “Gandhi’s forays into every district of the state may result in a higher vote percentage for the Congress, but may not necessarily translate into winning seats.” The factors that weigh down the party on the ground, far outweigh Gandhi’s influence or youthful optimism promising “change” in UP.
Those saddled with managing the constituencies and candidates, across the state are hampered by the complete lack of party workers, “karyakarta” on the ground. A disgruntled Youth Congress block president from central UP admitted to Business Standard, “When the Youth Congress was revamped, we were hopeful of some of us being given tickets, especially as Rahul Gandhi was heading the electoral charge here. But as always, we were overlooked and the party chose to field outsiders from several seats who have made it only because of the big names that have recommended them. Why should we work for such candidates and ensure their victory? Moreover why should people flock to work for our party when they know their effort are not rewarded ?”
Celebrity candidates are proving to be the bane for the Congress; whether it is Anil Sharma in Arya Nagar seat who was recommended by a senior Cabinet minister or Farrukabad candidate Louise Khurshid, wife of law minister Salman Khurshid.
Again wrong choice of candidates, the party has found could prove to be costly. In Kanpur Nagar district where the Congress got two of the five seats in the last Assembly elections of 2007, this time around it might just about muster one.
In the bastion of coal minister Sriprakash Jaiswal; this time even his own men Shailendra Dikshit from the Govindnagar seat and Sanjeev Daryabadi from the Sisamau seat are highly unlikely to be successful. Daryabadi’s candidature, for instance, had caused discontent among party workers as despite the seat becoming a general seat after delimitation, Daryabadi a schedule caste candidate, was still fielded from here.
Again, Congress gambled on fielding its Muslim face Abdul Mannan in Kanpur Cantonment to counter the three other Muslim candidates from here but it appears the BJP candidate has gained in the process; as the Muslim vote here has got split among the three Muslim ‘ansari’ candidates’ fielded here. “Had Mannan been fielded from his old Arya Nagar constituency from where he has won earlier, he surely would have made it. “In the Kanpur Cantt seat, he stands little chance,” says a Congress worker from Kanpur.
The Congress is also realising its assumption of the unprecedented Lok Sabha 2009 mandate of 22 seats will find reflection in these Assembly elections 2012, could just turn out to be a fallacy.
Most of the seats the Congress won in 2009, whether it is in Moradabad, Farrukabad or Ferozabad, due to cricketer Azharuddin or actor Raj Babbar, incidentally the party is hugely unpopular now in these areas as the MPs have hardly visited their constituencies since they won. The anger among the locals in Farrukabad for Salman Khurshid, (as he is perceived to have done little for the development of the area) appears to be working against the poll prospects of his wife. The Khurshids could have brought in Bollywood stars Nagma or Delhi chief minister Shiela Diskhit to pull in the crowds, but this as Congress party workers, themselves explain is unlikely to get converted into votes.
Even a Rahul Gandhi rally at the Christian College ground here, could not gather enough numbers while the Mayawati rally at the same spot saw crowds spill onto the streets.
The Muslim vote, which the Congress had been banking on, the party has realised is clearly divided among several parties — the Samajwadi Party, the new entrant the Peace Party and Independents who have been playing spoiler.
Even in Samajwadi Party (SP) bastion Etawah, the SP could be in for a rude surprise. Although the Muslims have generally aligned themselves with SP, this time, however Peace Party candidate, Mrityunjay Chaudhry is a favourite here. Being a Brahmin not only is he attracting the Brahmin votes but the Muslim votes as well. The party is slated to have garnered about 60 per cent of the 45,000 odd Muslim votes according to booth agents here. The Congress has virtually no presence in this area and the handful of party workers that do exist are allegedly hand-in-glove with the SP as “they need to survive there since it’s a SP stronghold”.
With its poll prospects appearing bleak, the party has now swung into a counter propaganda mode, painting the three other parties in the fray as those “who have been instrumental in looting Uttar Pradesh these past 22 years.”
Mohan Prakash, senior Congress leader said, “The pro-establishment class of contractors, officers etc. are more comfortable with the SP, BJP and BSP governments since the '90s. They are uncomfortable with a Congress in power.”
Poll rhetoric aside, March 6th will in any case be a watershed for Rahul Gandhi-led campaign and if the realists in the party are to be believed it will be a windfall if the party manages to double its present tally of 22.
