Congress rubbishes exit poll results

BATTLEFIELD GUJARAT

The Congress managers, rubbishing the exit poll results, are saying that it will be a close contest in Gujarat.

The internal assessment of the party says, the victory will be decided via a narrow margin where the party has a fair chance of winning the crucial elections and oust Narendra Modi from the chief minister's chair.

A senior leader of the party said, "We are confident of doing well in the tribal belts and Bhuj region. Modi can't hold its base in the Central Gujarat too, expect Ahmedabad." Officially, the party has proclaimed that it will come to power in Gujarat while retaining it's hold over Himachal.

"We are going to win hands down in Gujarat. In Himachal, we will be back in power," the official said.

The Congress pins its hopes on the rebel-dominated Saurashtra, tribal areas of Dahod and Panchmahal and the Kutch area.

According to the Congress calculations, before 2002, the party used to get 20-30 thousand vote margins in the tribal seats of Dahod.

"In 2002, because of the abnormal situation, the BJP got victory margins of 4-6 thousand votes. This time, we will get back those seats," the party official said.

Although Sonia Gandhi's party is confident about other areas, it is still in doubt about its prospects in the northern Gujarat, a traditional den of the BJP.

In central Gujarat, the party is expecting to win "not less than fifteen seats". In the Kutch area last time, the Congress could retain four out of six seats. This time it is expecting its tally to go up by one more seat.

The Congress, although contested by most of the UPA allies like RJD, LJP and RPI(A), could agree to a seat-sharing pact with Sharad Pawar's NCP.

Sonia Gandhi's party is confident that it will reap benefits from these seat adjustments. According to a senior party leader, "The NCP will win at least a couple of seats."

The Congress had given eight tickets to the BJP-rebels, and it is confident that at least six of them will be able to retain their seats.

The party held nine meetings of its screening committee and then three meetings of the central election committee (headed by Sonia Gandhi) to meticulously finalise the list of candidates.

The party believes it has put the right man in the right constituency and it will prove as an advantage. In the Ahmedabad region, the Congress is expecting four out of the twelve urban seats and at least three out of the seven rural seats.

The high voter turnout in the urban areas has made both sides claim it in its own favour. Like the BJP, the Congress also claims that more votes mean more support to it. "Had there been a high turnout in the rural areas, it would have favoured the BJP. But higher percentage of votes in the urban centres add to our advantage."