The Cotton Association of India (CAI) envisages a total supply of 343.75 lakh cotton bales as on May 31, 2009.
This will comprise opening stock at 43 lakh bales, crop production of 290.75 lakh bales and import of 10 lakh bales till last month.
On the demand side, the mill consumption is expected to be 200 lakh bales, consumption by small-scale units, 20 lakh, non-mill use, 15 lakh, and exports, 40 lakh bales, adding up to a total demand of 275 lakh bales.
This would leave the carry-over stock at 68.75 lakh bales, CAI said in its crop estimates for the season 2008-09.
Taking into account the actual ground situation and other relevant factors, the association recently made a downward revision of its cotton production estimate for the current season. The association's current estimate of the crop is lower at 290.75 lakh bales.
The main reason for the association down-sizing the crop output now is the lower-than-expected arrivals in several states like Gujarat, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu.
The crop in the north zone was earlier placed at 42- lakh bales, but now it is expected that production may be lower at 38.25-lakh. As against the earlier estimate of 172-lakh bales in the central zone, the crop is now placed at 171.50-lakh bales.
The production in south zone is estimated at 67.50-lakh bales.
The lose cotton estimate has been retained at the earlier level of 15-lakh bales.
According to the data gathered by the association, the total arrivals up to May-end stood at 284.50-lakh bales.
The zone-wise arrivals have been 36.75-lakh bales in the north, 169.75-lakh in the central and 64.50-lakh in the south.
The consumption of cotton by mills has been consistently on the rise to 200-lakh bales in 2008-09 as against 150.39-lakh bales in 2003-04.
Among the leading states, Gujarat remained top producer with crop estimates of 90-lakh bales, followed by Maharashtra 64-lakh, Andhra Pradesh 55-lakh, Madhya Pradesh 17.5-lakh, Pubjab 16-lakh, Haryana 13.50-lakh and Rajasthan 8.75-lakh bales.
Karnataka is estimated to produce 8-lakh bales and Tamil Nadu 4.50-lakh bales, CAI said.
