Economic recovery on rough patch, second Covid-19 wave may dampen prospects

Gaps in recovery have been surfacing after the resurgence in new cases due to Covid-19 second wave, but the moderation in the pick-up seems to have begun well before.

While the International Monetary Fund has maintained ambitious growth estimates for FY22, the Reserve Bank of India has kept its forecast unchanged owing to a coordinated fiscal and monetary response. 

The second Covid-19 wave is likely to put India’s economic recovery off track. Gaps in recovery have been surfacing after the resurgence in new cases, but the moderation in the pick-up seems to have begun well before the second wave. 

Indicators began worsening in January, and the resurgence of the epidemic started in February. Come April, the disease began spreading faster than expected—and faster than the first wave. Partial lockdowns